This decline in activity follows two consecutive months of growth, with UK GDP having expanded by 0.4% in February and 0.3% in March.

In its briefing note, the ONS pointed out that the economy was weighed on by a 0.2% contraction in the services sector, which could not be offset by 0.1% growth in construction. Manufacturing output, meanwhile, remained unchanged.

The BoE Faces a Dilemma

Over the three months ending in April, real GDP nevertheless rose 0.7%, compared to +0.6% at the end of March and +0.5% at the end of February.

Following a strong performance in 2025 (+1.4%), the British economy is expected to suffer from its dependence on raw materials this year. This is projected to bring annual growth down to around 0.7% while inflation begins to rise again, a scenario likely to complicate the task for the Bank of England (BoE), which meets next Thursday.

In a note published earlier this week, analysts at UBS said they expect the institution to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, despite increased division within the committee. They anticipate a prolonged status quo before the first rate cuts occur in early 2027.