Baghdad and Erbil Agree to Resume Oil Exports via -2-

0650 GMT - Markets seem to be becoming increasingly desensitised to incoming geopolitical news flow which, not to take anything away from the significant degree of human suffering, is a relatively common phenomenon when it comes to events such as the present Middle East conflict, Pepperstone's Michael Brown says in a note. "Still, kinetic action continues, the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially impassable, and there has still been little-to-no apparent progress towards de-escalation, or any 'off-ramps' being taken," the senior research strategists says. It remains the assumption that the longer Hormuz remains blocked, the tighter commodity markets will become, hence the higher energy prices are likely to head, he says. ([e-mail])

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Oil Market Seems to Be Pricing in Supply Disruptions, Not Just Geopolitical Risks

0636 GMT - The oil market is now pricing in actual supply disruption rather than just Middle East geopolitical risks, says XS.com's Linh Tran in commentary. "This distinction is crucial, as real supply losses tend to trigger stronger and more sustained price reactions compared to periods dominated by perceived risk alone," she says. This suggests oil's upward momentum could be sustained. She notes global oil supply losses could be reaching 8 million barrels of oil a day, or nearly 8.0% of global demand. She maintains a short-term bullish bias on oil prices, with Brent likely to push towards the $110-$120-a-barrel range and WTI exceeding $100 a barrel. Front-month WTI futures fall 4.2% to $92.15 a barrel; Brent drops 2.7% to $100.60 a barrel. ([e-mail])

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BHP Puts Proven Copper Operator at the Helm -- Market Talk

0506 GMT - Brandon Craig's skills appear well matched to BHP's plans for future growth, particularly in copper, Global X senior investment strategist Marc Jocum says following Craig's promotion to CEO at BHP. "The appointment of Brandon Craig at BHP is effectively like putting the chief engineer of the 'copper engine' in the driver's seat," he says. Jocum says Global X is structurally bullish on materials, with copper its highest conviction exposure. Global X invests in BHP via its exchange-traded funds. "Copper is becoming the electricity of the modern economy critical to AI, electrification and energy transition, while supply remains structurally constrained," says Jocum. "Against that backdrop, BHP offers leveraged exposure to a tightening market just as leadership shifts toward execution." BHP shares are up 0.9% at A$50.18. ([e-mail]; @RhiannonHoyle)

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Aluminum Prices Likely to Remain High in Near-Term -- Market Talk

0233 GMT - Aluminum prices are likely to remain high in the near-term, due to supply-side constraints, OCBC Group Research's Jonathan Ng writes in a report. Prices have remained firm this year, with the recent higher costs driven by concerns over supply chain disruptions in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, which remains functionally closed, is a critical transit route not only for energy products but also for fertilizer and aluminum. "A prolonged disruption will, therefore, affect multiple commodity classes simultaneously," Ng says. OCBC expects aluminum prices to be $3,500 a metric ton in 2Q. The three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange is down 1.1% at $3,361.00 a metric ton. ([e-mail])

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Iron Ore Lower as Supply Outpaces Demand -- Market Talk

0230 GMT - Iron ore prices are lower in early Asian trading. Prices are unlikely to stay elevated for long as supply continues to outpace demand, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a research note. Tensions around the Middle East strait may push more cargo toward China, although higher fuel costs could slow delivery times, they note. Port inventories remain high, they say. Investors are advised to take profits at highs, they say. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 0.4% at 809.0 yuan a ton. ([e-mail])

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Brent Oil Price Likely to Stay Elevated Around $100 per Barrel Through Mid-2026 -- Market Talk

0106 GMT - Brent oil prices are likely to stay elevated around $100 per barrel through mid-2026, OCBC Group Research's Sim Moh Siong says in a note. "The U.S.-Iran conflict has entered its third week with no credible path to de?escalation," the commodity strategist says. Also, flows through Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained, and no U.S. partners have committed to President Trump's call for joint military action to reopen the channel. OCBC lifts its quarterly forecasts for Brent and WTI oil prices from 1Q 2026 through 1Q 2027. For 1Q 2026, it now sees Brent at $100.00 per barrel versus $70.00 a barrel projected previously. Front-month WTI futures are 1.5% lower at $94.79 per barrel; front-month Brent futures are 0.95% lower at $102.44 a barrel. ([e-mail])

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-18-26 0821ET