(Alliance News) - Is the banking M&A wave truly over? The 2025 results suggest otherwise.
As reported by Milano Finanza, despite falling interest rates, profits remain high: Intesa Sanpaolo ended with EUR9.3 billion in net profit, while UniCredit, which is set to release its results soon, is expected to post revenues of EUR24.8 billion and profits close to EUR10.5 billion. The bank's capital solidity remains strong, with an estimated capital surplus of around EUR5 billion.
UniCredit shares have reached new highs, nearing EUR77 and a market capitalization exceeding EUR115 billion. With a ROE above 17.5% and a valuation of 1.79 times book value, the bank led by Andrea Orcel has room to return as a key player in sector consolidation—a scenario the market continues to bet on.
Among possible targets, Banco BPM remains the most straightforward scenario, but its valuation discount is limited and the presence of Crédit Agricole complicates the situation.
There is also little room for BPER, whose multiples are now close to those of UniCredit, reducing the potential for arbitrage.
Montepaschi remains in the background: Siena trades at book value but generates a ROE of 15.4%. A deal involving MPS—whether through a public exchange offer or a gradual entry into its capital—would also allow UniCredit to indirectly strengthen its positions in Mediobanca and Generali.
For now, these are only hypotheses, but they would be enough to reignite the M&A wave and reshape the balance of Italian finance.
By Giuseppe Fabio Ciccomascolo, Alliance News senior reporter
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