Fears of a prolonged conflict involving Iran, combined with a rebound in oil prices and a surge in bond yields, have tended to weigh on equity markets in recent days.

Faced with accumulating geopolitical uncertainties and questions regarding the policy trajectory of major central banks, market interpretation has become more complex, leading many investors to prefer reducing their risk exposure.

Increasingly fragmented markets

Trading ranges are expected to remain narrow today, as investors exercise caution ahead of key events scheduled for the coming days.

'Markets have shown resilience despite geopolitical shocks, political uncertainty, and inflation risks,' observe the Paris-based teams at Capital Group.

'Behind the scenes, however, the global economy is undergoing profound structural changes in terms of productivity, capital flows, and fiscal policy, which are redefining how growth is generated and how returns are distributed,' the investment firm highlights.

An increasing number of strategists are pointing to a 'fragmented' environment, pulled on one side by the resurgence of inflationary pressures and on the other by the ongoing engine of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

A precarious calm before the Nvidia test

Tuesday's session is expected to remain relatively quiet due to a light microeconomic and macroeconomic calendar.

The real test will likely come tomorrow evening with the publication of Nvidia's quarterly results, with hopes that the Californian chip giant's announcements will provide support to indices that have been losing momentum.

According to FactSet data, 96% of U.S. technology companies have reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations.

Other U.S. corporate earnings releases are on the agenda for the coming days, notably Home Depot this Tuesday before the bell, followed by Walmart on Thursday.

Also on this week's menu are the accounts of several European heavyweights, such as Euronext and Vinci today, BT and Generali on Thursday, and Richemont on Friday.

Several top-tier statistics in sight

The macroeconomic agenda for the coming days will also be busy, featuring, among others, the latest consumer price figures for the eurozone. These should provide new evidence on whether the current inflationary spike, fueled by supply chain tensions in the Gulf and soaring energy costs, is sustainable.

The 'minutes' from the latest Fed meeting (Wednesday), European activity PMIs (Thursday), and the German Ifo business climate index (Friday) will also be closely monitored.

At this stage of the day, futures signal a slight decline for the New York Stock Exchange following yesterday's mixed close, in a context of falling semiconductor stocks amid risk aversion fueled by the geopolitical situation in the Near East.

The S&P 500 fell 0.07% to 7,403.1 points, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.45% to 28,994.4 points, while the Dow Jones gained 0.32% to 49,686.1 points.

Supported by the solid performance of oil stocks, the Dow Jones index managed to rise 0.3% to 49,686.1 points, but the S&P 500 retreated 0.1% to 7,403.1 points and the Nasdaq 100 shed 0.5% to 28,994.4 points.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange, for its part, lost 0.5%, while in mainland China, the CSI 300 of large-cap stocks contracted by approximately 0.4%.

The specter of a Fed rate hike resurfaces

The rise in U.S. Treasury yields continues, driven by the prospect of a shift in U.S. monetary policy due to the return of inflationary pressures.

According to interest rate futures, markets now consider it more likely that the Fed will raise its rate range this year than the reverse; the probability of one or more rate hikes by year-end has reached 52%, compared to an estimate of 48% for an unchanged rate range.

In this context, the U.S. ten-year yield remains at a peak of 4.62%, its highest level since early 2025.

On the foreign exchange market, the dollar remains firm, above 1.1640 against the euro, supported once again by a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's timetable.

While consolidating slightly this morning, oil remains close to the records reached last month due to the lack of progress in negotiations for a ceasefire in the Middle East, the only condition for reducing supply risks.

The July contract for U.S. light crude (WTI, West Texas Intermediate) is down 1% at 103.3 dollars, and the North Sea Brent contract is down 1.7% at 110.2 dollars.