The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected decision and still managed to make everyone slightly nervous. Rates were held steady at 3.5%–3.75%, with the vote coming in at 10 in favor and 2 against: Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran pushing for a quarter-point cut.

Jerome Powell's reasoning was straightforward: the U.S. economy is resilient enough under current conditions that there's no urgent need to adjust policy. He also said the Fed will remain data-dependent, and that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished. That's meant to sound calming, and maybe it is, but it also signals something else: the Fed is comfortable staying put, even as politics and markets beg for direction. Powell, for his part, spent much of his press conference deploying a phrase that deserves its own trademark - "I have nothing for you on that" - to dodge thorny questions about his future after his chairmanship ends May 15, about the dismissal of Lisa Cook, and even about a federal investigation into the Fed's building works.

Markets, predictably, treated the Fed decision as a non-event, which is another way of saying they treated it as an event that didn't give them permission to do anything dramatic. Wall Street ended in a holding pattern: the S&P 500 and the Dow closed virtually unchanged, while the Nasdaq managed only a small uptick. Yet even in that flatness there was a moment of quiet absurdity: the S&P briefly touched 7,000 for the first time ever, hitting an intraday record of 7,002.28.

If the Fed didn't give markets a reason to move, Big Tech certainly tried. Three of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" reported after Wednesday's close, and the results landed like a referendum on the only question that seems to matter in corporate America right now: can you spend billions on AI without looking like you're lighting money on fire? Meta offered the market what it loves most: confidence with receipts. The company paired an upbeat revenue forecast with a jaw-dropping 73% jump in this year's capex budget, and investors responded by sending the stock up more than 7% in premarket trading after a strong beat. The subtext was clear: yes, we're spending more, but it's working, and you can see it in the ad business. Tesla, too, got a surprisingly warm reception. It outlined plans to more than double capital expenditure to a record level and still saw shares rise about 2.9% premarket, because its results were less deteriorated than feared despite a growth stall. "Less deteriorated than feared" seems to be more than enough for Tesla's aficionados.

Then there was Microsoft, which learned the hard way that in 2026 you don't get applause for spending; you get a bill. The stock dropped about 6.4% as cloud revenue failed to impress and reignited worries that the heavy outlays behind its OpenAI alliance are not translating into monetization fast enough. This is the new market morality tale. AI spending is no longer inherently virtuous. It is only virtuous if it turns into profit on a timeline that makes analysts feel safe. 

That shift matters because the Magnificent Seven represent about one-third of the S&P 500's market cap. They've driven the sustained rally in U.S. equities, and they continue to trade at elevated valuation multiples. If investors start treating AI spending as a risk rather than a promise, the entire market's emotional foundation changes.

Meanwhile, Apple rose slightly ahead of results after the bell, with investors waiting to see whether the Cupertino bellwether can still shape the tech weather. And in a week dominated by futuristic hype, it was IBM that stole the spotlight. It jumped more than 8% premarket after beating estimates in fourth-quarter earnings, and another report noted it posted a 12% increase in revenue and gave sales guidance ahead of expectations.

The dollar has become a focal point. Trump indicated he saw no issue with letting the greenback slide, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to add a caveat: the United States remains committed to a strong dollar and hasn't intervened recently to support the yen. His remarks briefly lifted the dollar, but the rebound didn't last. Powell, notably, said currency concerns are fully under the purview of the U.S. Treasury: an elegant way of saying, "please stop making this my problem." 

Gold surged past $5,500 an ounce for the first time, extending a historic rally boosted by a weaker dollar and growing expectations that the next Fed chair will pursue further monetary easing. Silver hit a record. Copper climbed to a fresh record above $13,900 a metric ton. Aluminum rose to its highest level since 2022, driven by supply concerns and the broader metals bull run. 

On the politics front, The New York Times reported that Trump and Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer moved to reach an agreement to negotiate new restrictions on federal immigration agents, potentially averting a government shutdown. The funding deadline is Friday midnight. 

Then there's the part markets keep trying to treat as background noise until it isn't: Iran. The U.S. is maintaining pressure, with a naval group centered around the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln deployed in the Middle East to reinforce deterrence. And despite being pounded in June's 12-day war, Iran still has much of its arsenal intact, including an estimated 2,000 midrange ballistic missiles capable of reaching across the region as far as Israel, plus significant short-range missile stockpiles that can threaten U.S. bases in the Gulf and ships in the Strait of Hormuz, along with anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedo boats, and drones.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda includes: Consumer Confidence in Japan; Balance of Trade in Switzerland; Economic Sentiment in the Euro Area; Unemployment Benefit Claims in France and Business Confidence in Spain; in the United States, Initial Jobless Claims, Imports, Balance of Trade, Exports, and Factory Orders MoM; Balance of Trade in Canada. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 96,319
  • Gold: $5,516
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $69.01 (WTI) $64.87
  • United States 10 years: 4.26%
  • BITCOIN: $87,885

In corporate news:

  • Lukoil has agreed to sell most of its $22 billion international assets to Carlyle, excluding Kazakhstan, under a deal contingent on U.S. regulatory approval due to sanctions pressure.
  • Ocado was hit by a decision from its Canadian partner Sobeys to shut down a Calgary warehouse, citing weak market growth and further challenging Ocado's automated grocery fulfillment model.
  • Alibaba is merging its autonomous delivery vehicle unit with Chinese robovan maker Zelos, forming a $2 billion business to streamline logistics and focus on core areas like AI and e-commerce.
  • Aircraft lessor ACG, a unit of Tokyo Century Corp, aims to grow further and remain in the global top 10 by leasing volume after a major Boeing order.
  • ABB launched a $2 billion share buyback and gave an upbeat 2026 outlook following record orders and strong Q4 earnings fueled by AI-driven electrification demand.
  • Citi launched evergreen private-market funds in Asia and the Middle East, in partnership with Blackstone, Blue Owl, and KKR, to offer wealthy clients flexible access to private assets.
  • Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are reportedly in talks to invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI, with Nvidia possibly contributing half of that to support AI development and infrastructure.
  • Walmart: The board has approved a dividend payment for shareholders.
  • Tesla will double its capital spending to $20 billion, focusing on autonomous vehicles, robots, and battery production. Q4 revenue exceeds Wall Street estimates.
  • Microsoft experienced high capital expenditures with a slowdown in cloud growth, impacting its valuation.
  • Meta's first-quarter sales exceed expectations, marking a positive turnaround.
  • JPMorgan believes the current economic environment is ideal for bonds and credit markets.
  • Bit Digital Inc. reaffirms its long-term holding in Whitefiber shares.
  • Steel Partners proposes a cash and credit-financed acquisition of a majority stake in InMode at $18 per share, a 29% premium to the recent closing price.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Agnc Investment Corp.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to market perform from outperform and raises the target price from USD 11 to USD 12.
  • Brown & Brown, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods upgrades to market perform from underperform and reduces the target price from USD 80 to USD 73.
  • General Motors Company: DZ Bank AG Research upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 69 to USD 98.
  • Nrg Energy, Inc: Zacks downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 157 to USD 133.
  • Zillow Group, Inc.: Barclays upgrades to market weight from underweight with a price target raised from USD 66 to USD 72.
  • Lam Research Corporation: B Riley Securities Inc. maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 255 to USD 310.
  • Paycom Software, Inc.: Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 170 to USD 135.
  • Servicenow, Inc.: Raymond James maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 220 to USD 160.
  • Solstice Advanced Materials Inc.: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 61 to USD 75.
  • V.f. Corporation: KGI Securities Co Ltd maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 14.50 to USD 21.50.