That reinvention, however, is proving costly. The so-called "Magnificent Seven" - a collection of tech titans that now account for roughly 35% of the S&P 500's weight - have revealed a shared enthusiasm for spending heavily on AI. Investors are increasingly uneasy that this money may not translate into higher earnings anytime soon. 

Yesterday, on the eve of Halloween, America's stock market staged a fright of its own. Technology shares tumbled, only for Apple and Amazon to offer a late reprieve. Such whiplash has become routine. Reactions to earnings now resemble a slot machine, not a weighing machine. Double-digit swings, even in blue chips, are the new normal.

The market's valuation adds another layer of tension. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings multiple has risen above 23, levels not seen since the dot-com era. This implies that investors are already paying handsomely for future profits. Unless corporate results continue to surprise, the risk grows that valuations have raced ahead of reality. 

The Federal Reserve is not helping matters by refusing to play the role of generous benefactor. After delivering a widely expected quarter-point rate cut, Chair Jerome Powell insisted that another in December was "not a foregone conclusion." The remark caused traders to temper their expectations: the odds of another cut dropped to about 68% from nearly 90% earlier in the week. 

Even so, America's stock rally remains intact. The S&P 500 and Dow are both on track for a sixth consecutive monthly gain, and the Nasdaq for its seventh, the longest such run since 2017. Around 83% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far have beaten expectations, with profits up more than 12% year on year.

Investors' fascination with artificial intelligence has propelled the S&P 500 up 90% since the last bear market began to fade. But enthusiasm has collided with a more practical concern: the bill. Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet all announced plans to increase spending on AI infrastructure. Amazon and Apple have been more restrained but still contribute to the narrative of costly innovation. 

November and December have historically brought cheer to investors; since 1950, they have ranked among the best months for the S&P 500. Yet after gains of 16% for the index and 22% for the Nasdaq this year, the question is whether the holiday optimism has already been priced in.

Markets may continue to rise if earnings justify the enthusiasm, but the margin for error is narrowing. 

In Asia-Pacific, China continues to decline while Japan and South Korea are progressing, supported by recent agreements signed with the Trump administration. In Australia, the ASX fell for the fourth consecutive session after a rise in inflation dashed hopes of interest rate cuts in the country. Europe is bearish, as the pulling power of Apple and Amazon has clearly not survived the Atlantic crossing.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,555
  • Gold: $4,012
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.94 (WTI) $60.15
  • United States 10 years: 4.1%
  • BITCOIN: $110, 021

In corporate news:

  • Exxon Mobil exceeded Q3 profit expectations with $8.1 billion in earnings, driven by record production in Guyana and the Permian Basin despite lower oil prices.
  • Apple reported record revenue and earnings per share in its September quarter, driven by strong service revenues.
  • Alphabet's Google Cloud became a key growth engine with $15 billion in Q3 revenue, thanks to AI-driven demand and years of infrastructure investment.
  • The Carlyle Group reported Q3 fee-related earnings of $312 million as assets under management rose to $474 billion, boosted by strong inflows into AlpInvest and global credit.
  • Dexcom shares dropped 12% premarket after executives signaled 2026 growth could fall short of expectations, despite beating Q3 estimates.
  • Nvidia will supply over 260,000 AI chips to South Korea as part of partnerships with Samsung, Hyundai, and SK Group to power AI factories and infrastructure.
  • Chevron beat Q3 earnings estimates with $3.6 billion in adjusted profit, driven by record production after acquiring Hess and stronger refining margins.
  • Coinbase beat Q3 profit estimates amid rising trading volumes, but faces growing competition as regulatory clarity draws new public crypto exchanges.
  • Pfizer may use political connections in the Trump administration to challenge Novo Nordisk's rival bid for obesity drug firm Metsera.
  • LyondellBasell beat Q3 profit estimates on stronger olefins margins, even as it took a $1.2 billion write-down and faces continued weakness in Europe.
  • Aon exceeded Q3 expectations with 7% organic revenue growth, driven by its Aon United strategy and strength in risk and human capital segments.
  • Meta Platforms raised up to $30 billion through a bond sale to finance AI infrastructure investments.
  • Netflix announced a ten-for-one stock split and is exploring a bid for Warner Bros Discovery's studio and streaming business.
  • Edwards Lifesciences Corp announced a CFO transition and reported strong Q3 earnings, raising its full-year guidance.
  • Brighthouse Financial is being acquired by private equity firms.
  • Walmart, Smithfield Foods, and other grocers could lose up to $8 billion in November sales if U.S. food aid lapses due to the government shutdown.
  • Linde beat Q3 earnings estimates with $4.21 EPS, driven by higher prices and productivity gains, and reaffirmed its full-year outlook.
  • Amazon shares soared nearly 12% after reporting strong Q3 growth in AWS cloud revenue and upbeat holiday-quarter guidance.
  • Ford announced a $370 million investment to restart engine manufacturing in India for export, creating 600 jobs by 2029.
  • Uber will invest $200 million over five years in a new tech development center in Istanbul, its fourth such facility outside the U.S.
  • Bloom Energy priced a $2.2 billion offering of convertible senior notes due 2030.
  • Walt Disney channels including ESPN and ABC were removed from YouTube TV after failed licensing negotiations, prompting a $20 credit offer to subscribers.
  • Twilio surged over 7% after beating Q3 estimates and raising full-year guidance, citing strong revenue and profit growth.
  • Reddit projected strong Q4 revenue and posted 68% growth in Q3, as its AI-driven ad strategy boosted advertiser numbers and user monetization.
  • First Solar beat Q3 sales estimates and announced a new U.S. factory, despite lowering its 2025 sales and volume forecasts due to contract terminations.
  • Stryker raised its full-year profit outlook after Q3 earnings topped expectations, driven by strong demand in surgical and neurotech devices.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Comcast Corporation: KeyBanc Capital Markets downgrades to sector weight from overweight.
  • Fmc Corporation: Wells Fargo downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 41 to USD 16.
  • Idexx Laboratories, Inc.: Stifel upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 640 to USD 700.
  • Roblox Corporation: Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 155 to USD 180.
  • Sportradar Group Ag: Arete Research upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 31.
  • Sps Commerce, Inc.: Stifel downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 150 to USD 80. 
  • The Timken Company: Oxcap Analytics upgrades to market weight from underweight and raises the target price from USD 61 to USD 85.
  • Twilio Inc.: Stifel upgrades to neutral from hold and raises the target price from USD 110 to USD 120.
  • Alphabet Inc.: CICC maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 240 to USD 303.
  • Amazon.com, Inc.: MoffettNathanson LLC maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 263 to USD 338.
  • Aptiv Plc: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 72 to USD 87.
  • C.h. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.: Loop Capital Markets maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 133 to USD 160.
  • Centene Corporation: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 24 to USD 32.
  • Cloudflare, Inc.: Capital One Securities maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 234 to USD 288.
  • Comerica Incorporated: Truist Securities maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 70 to USD 86.
  • Dexcom, Inc.: BTIG maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 109 to USD 85.
  • First Solar, Inc.: Mirae Asset Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 184 to USD 291.
  • Insmed Incorporated: Leerink Partners maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 180 to USD 225.
  • Leidos Holdings, Inc.: Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 185 to USD 225.
  • Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 820 to USD 1200.
  • Reddit, Inc.: Seaport Global maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 225 to USD 280.
  • Targa Resources Corp.: Thompson Research Group maintains its not rated recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 191 to USD 141.
  • United Therapeutics Corporation: Leerink Partners maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 402 to USD 517.
  • Wesco International, Inc.: Raymond James maintains its strong buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 240 to USD 300.
  • Western Digital Corporation: Baird maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 97 to USD 180.