BNP Paribas Resumes Upward Trend as KBW Upgrades to "Outperform"
With gains of 0.6% by midday, BNP Paribas stands out as one of the top performers on the CAC 40 index this Friday, after Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its rating on the stock from "market perform" to "outperform" this morning.
In a report released this morning, KBW analysts explain that several factors are currently working in favor of French banks, including internal initiatives to improve performance, robust balance sheets, and attractive stock market valuations. These elements lead them to take a more positive view of French institutions.
Regarding BNP Paribas specifically, the American bank points to an improving investment thesis, with the group visibly stepping up efforts to strengthen its capital base and boost profitability, aiming for a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of around 13%.
Stock Still Undervalued, Say Analysts
Given that investors are increasingly focused on credit quality, the New York firm believes BNP is well positioned in this area thanks to its solid balance sheet, which should allow it to better manage any potential challenges ahead.
While not an immediate catalyst, the firm also expects the strategic update scheduled for early 2027 to be a positive factor, noting that management is targeting a cost/income ratio around 50% and a profitability ratio near 15% in the long term.
Finally, in terms of valuation, the stock does not appear expensive, KBW concludes, as it currently trades at about 0.95 times tangible book value. Based on a 13% RoTE and a 2028 adjusted P/E of 6.4x, these attractive levels justify the upgrade in recommendation.
Shortly before 12:30 p.m., BNP Paribas shares were up 0.6% on strong volumes, outperforming a CAC index down 0.4%. Due to unrest in Iran, the stock is down 8% this week but still posts gains of 8.4% since the start of the year, making it one of the best-performing blue-chip stocks on the Paris index in 2026.
BNP Paribas is France's largest banking group. Net banking product (NBP) breaks down by activity as follows:
- retail banking (50.8%): retail banking activity in France (24.2% of NBP), in Belgium (14%), and Italy (10.1%). The remainder of the NBP (51.7%) is from international activities and specialized financial services activities (consumer loans, real estate credit, leasing credit, car fleet management, computer equipment leasing);
- finance and investment banking (36.1%): consulting and capital market activities (83.2% of NBP; merger-acquisition consulting, activities related to the stock, interest, and exchange markets, etc.) and financing (16.8%; financing for acquisitions, projects, raw material transactions, etc.);
- institutional and private management and insurance (13.1%): asset management, private banking activity (No. 1 in France), real estate and on-line brokerage services, insurance and securities services (No. 1 in Europe for retained securities).
At the end of 2025, BNP Paribas was managing EUR 1,075.6 billion in current deposits and EUR 897.3 billion in current loans.
Net banking product is distributed geographically as follows: Europe/Middle East/Africa (80.8%), America (10.8%) and Asia/Pacific (8.4%).
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