BNP Paribas Rises as JPMorgan Turns More Optimistic
BNP Paribas shares posted the second-largest gain on the CAC 40 index Friday on the Paris Bourse, as JPMorgan expressed optimism about the French banking group, which it says is successfully making a strategic shift with fewer capital concerns and improving profitability.
The broker notes that even though the stock performed well last year (+36%), it still significantly lags behind other banking stocks over the past four years—a gap that could, in their view, close thanks to measures taken by management to boost profitability in underperforming divisions. These initiatives could also involve certain asset disposals aimed at reassuring the market about the group's capital position.
In its note, the broker points out that BNP has not yet reached a "CET1" capital ratio of 13%, but stresses that the institution has pledged to return any surplus capital above 13% to shareholders—a new approach for the group, which until now had favored external growth.
According to JPMorgan, the market has not yet factored in the fact that BNP's capital position is no longer an issue, as following these asset disposals, the group should have enough funds to cover litigation-related risks.
Given that the analyst sees profitability improving, with return on tangible equity (ROTE) expected to reach 12.7% in 2027 and 13% in 2028, they consider BNP to be "the cheapest bank in Europe" today.
As a result, they have upgraded their recommendation on the stock from "neutral" to "overweight," with a price target raised from 89 to 102 euros, implying a potential upside of 24%.
At 11:45 a.m., the stock was up 3.3%, posting the highest trading volumes on the CAC 40 index, which was itself up 0.6% at the same time.
Yesterday, UBS analysts had already upgraded their recommendation on the stock from "neutral" to "buy," raising their price target from 77.4 to 103 euros and adding the stock to their "top picks" portfolio, again citing the valuation discount displayed by the banking group.
The stock has already gained 5.4% since the start of the year and nearly 10% in a month.
BNP Paribas is France's largest banking group. Net banking product (NBP) breaks down by activity as follows:
- retail banking (50.8%): retail banking activity in France (24.2% of NBP), in Belgium (14%), and Italy (10.1%). The remainder of the NBP (51.7%) is from international activities and specialized financial services activities (consumer loans, real estate credit, leasing credit, car fleet management, computer equipment leasing);
- finance and investment banking (36.1%): consulting and capital market activities (83.2% of NBP; merger-acquisition consulting, activities related to the stock, interest, and exchange markets, etc.) and financing (16.8%; financing for acquisitions, projects, raw material transactions, etc.);
- institutional and private management and insurance (13.1%): asset management, private banking activity (No. 1 in France), real estate and on-line brokerage services, insurance and securities services (No. 1 in Europe for retained securities).
At the end of 2025, BNP Paribas was managing EUR 1,075.6 billion in current deposits and EUR 897.3 billion in current loans.
Net banking product is distributed geographically as follows: Europe/Middle East/Africa (80.8%), America (10.8%) and Asia/Pacific (8.4%).