Bank of America believes the truck cycle is turning upward and sees current multiples as attractive. The bank forecasts a 10 percent upside to 2026 earnings consensus. The research house selects Daimler Trucks (DTG) as its top pick in the European segment, replacing Volvo as its previous favorite.
"We now consider Daimler Truck to be the most attractive stock in the sub-sector (previously Volvo). Our new target price of 50 euros implies an upside potential of over 20 percent. This partly reflects valuation: DTG trades about 5 percent below its long-term average P/E ratio, while Volvo is about 25 percent above (justified by higher margins and the cyclical turnaround)," BofA writes in its analysis.
However, BofA sees stronger share price performance ahead for DTG, citing among other factors: 1) DTG's greater exposure to the US, where BofA expects the most pronounced turnaround (>50 percent earnings growth); 2) the management's underestimated restructuring in the EU, which should begin to bear fruit in 2026.
"Investors seem nervous ahead of the results (March 12) given tariff pressures, but we believe management will forecast margins of 6–8 percent for North America (consensus is 7.7 percent) and also initiate its 2 billion euro buyback, given that net cash is 1.5 billion euros above target."
The research house maintains its buy rating on Daimler Truck, raising its target price to 50 euros (previously 43).
BofA also likes Volvo, maintaining its buy recommendation and raising the target price to 370 kronor (previously 330).
"Beyond the company's leverage in the truck upcycle (about 70 percent of earnings), we believe construction equipment (around 20 percent) is starting to recover thanks to lower interest rates, fiscal stimulus in China/Germany, and booming data center construction in the US (supported by positive comments from Epiroc and Trelleborg last week). We believe consensus underestimates Volvo's influence on this."
For Traton, BofA's recommendation remains underperform, with a target price of 30 euros (previously 25).
AB Volvo is the leading European truck maker and No. 3 worldwide. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- sales of trucks (68.4%): 219,377 vehicles sold in 2024 (names Volvo, Renault, Eicher and Mack);
- sales of construction equipment (16.8%): excavators, loaders, backhoes, hydraulic shovels, graders, dump trucks, etc.;
- financial services (5.1%);
- bus and chassis sales (4.7%): world's No. 2 largest manufacturer;
- sales of parts, control systems, and marine and industrial motors (3.8%): for commerce and cruise ships and for industrial applications (irrigation units, lifting trucks, electrical generators, etc.);
- other (1.2%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Europe (41.1%), North America (30.8%), Asia (11.2%), South America (10.7%), Africa and Oceania (6.2%).
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