The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is undoubtedly the primary lever of pressure available to Iran, and Mojtaba Khamenei has clearly understood this: Iran is now deploying mines in this narrow maritime bottleneck, which is strategic for the hydrocarbon trade.

"It is a formidable weapon for sowing chaos. The country would only need to deploy 5% of its available arsenal to block traffic for several months. For Iran, this simple and economical solution aims to disrupt the balance of the conflict," points out Grégoire Kounowski, Investment Advisor at Norman K.

In a written statement released on the website of the Iranian embassy in Paris, the Shiite leader suggested he was considering opening other fronts "where the enemy has little experience and would be very vulnerable."

Indeed, yesterday at 8:40 p.m. Paris time, a drone struck the center of the Kurdish base in Mala Qara (Iraq) where several French soldiers were stationed, killing one and wounding six others. "The French detachment present on site was conducting training actions for several Iraqi units, in support of the fight against terrorism, as part of Operation Inherent Resolve," the French army stated this morning.

Iran also claims to have fired a Fattah hypersonic missile at "American-Israeli targets in Tel Aviv." This morning, NATO indicated it had intercepted a third Iranian missile in Turkish airspace...

Seemingly ignoring the reality on the ground and the potential for a more general regional conflagration, Donald Trump trumpeted on Truth Social that "the Iranian navy is gone, its air force no longer exists, its missiles, drones, and everything else are annihilated, and its leaders have been wiped off the map."

Except that the Strait of Hormuz remains unfit for traffic and Brent crude has once again crossed the symbolic threshold of 100 USD per barrel. A level so concerning that the United States has just granted a 30-day waiver for the purchase of Russian oil blocked at sea.

"History has taught us repeatedly that it is much easier to start a war than to end one...," wisely reminds Mark Dowding, Chief Investment Officer at BlueBay Fixed Income.

Economic consequences under surveillance

Consequently, Fitch Ratings has raised its Brent price assumption for 2026 to 70 USD/barrel, up from 63 USD/barrel previously, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which it assumes to be "temporary." Under these conditions, analysts fear a sharp resurgence of inflation in Europe and are questioning the strategy the ECB will adopt.

At Commerzbank, a near-term rate hike by the ECB is deemed "unlikely," despite market expectations following the oil surge linked to the war in the Middle East. In its central scenario, the conflict would remain short, inflation would temporarily rise toward 3% and then recede, leading the ECB to leave its rates unchanged. Even in the event of a longer war, with oil at 100 USD until the end of the year, the bank is not convinced that a rate hike would be automatic.

According to Goldman Sachs, despite this conflict, global growth should remain relatively solid in 2026, around 2.8%. In the Eurozone, the outlook remains more fragile. Goldman Sachs anticipates growth of approximately 1.0% in 2026, hampered by rising energy prices and increased competition on exports, particularly from China.
Inflation could, however, see a peak near 2.9%, mainly driven by energy, before gradually slowing down thanks to wage moderation and a stronger euro.

Stocks on the move

In corporate news, TotalEnergies posted the best performance on the CAC 40, gaining 1.9%, ahead of Publicis (+1.6%). Conversely, luxury goods are in sharp decline, with Kering down 2.2% and LVMH and L'Oréal down 1.7%.

According to Laurent Chaudeurge, analyst at BDL Capital Management, the decline in multiples in the luxury sector is not as attractive as it seems because, after earnings revisions, the sector is still trading around 25 to 27 times profits. According to his field analysis, a recovery in China would not occur before 2027 and, even then, it would be less profitable than before.
His central idea is that the Chinese consumer has changed. They are less willing to pay a high local premium for Western brands, have become more sophisticated, and expect more Chinese cultural content in products. This, in his view, should weigh on the sector's margins.

Among other European stocks, Zalando gained 7%, benefiting from support from Jefferies and Barclays, who remain positive on the case. For the full year, sales reached 12,346 million EUR, compared to 10,572 million EUR a year earlier.

Uniper (+3.3%) confirmed a solid recovery during the March 11 earnings calls. For the first time since the energy crisis, the company announced the payment of a dividend of 0.72 EUR per share.

Daimler Truck shed 0.1% after disappointing results. Revenue fell to 45,530 million EUR, compared to 50,173 million EUR a year earlier. Net income is down, as is earnings per share, which stood at 2.56 compared to 3.64 the previous year.

Numerous statistics to follow

On the statistical front, investors took note of inflation data in France. Over one year, consumer prices increased by 0.9% in February 2026 (compared to an anticipated +1%).

In Spain, the annual rate of change in the CPI (consumer price index) for February came in at 2.3%, the same level as recorded in January, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE).

Furthermore, seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 1.5% in the Eurozone and by 1.6% in the EU between December 2025 and January 2026, according to first estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It was expected to rise by 0.6%.

In the United States, investors will monitor the publication of the PCE index at 1:30 p.m., the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, while the Fed's next monetary policy decision is expected next week (March 17-18).