December's US inflation print was, on paper, reassuringly dull. Prices rose a touch less than expected, which in calmer times would have sparked a rally and a chorus of rate-cut hopes. Instead, Wall Street shrugged. The reason is simple enough: investors no longer believe the Federal Reserve is free to act as it once did, or that it will cut rates again before Jerome Powell leaves the chair in June.

The result was a mild sell-off that felt heavier than the numbers suggest. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped about 0.2%. The Dow Jones fell 0.8%, with banks leading the retreat. JPMorgan Chase delivered strong earnings, only to see its success overshadowed by Donald Trump's flirtation with capping credit-card interest rates. This followed a recent White House foray into residential real estate, where restrictions on institutional investors have unnerved developers and home-builders alike. In business circles, the mood has shifted from irritation to unease.

This is not just about banks. Federal interventionism is now casting a long shadow across multiple sectors. Healthcare firms are bracing for tougher drug-price regulation. Defence suppliers worry about pricing pressure from the Pentagon. Even housing stocks slid after the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency publicly questioned share buybacks.

Rising tensions around Venezuela and Iran Brent crude up 9% over the past week. Precious metals surged as investors sought shelter from the noise.  Gold's rally tells a deeper story than mere fear. Questions over the Fed's independence strike at one of the quiet foundations of global finance. Only the bond market really matters. So far, it has remained stubbornly calm. 

Today's trading session offers plenty of potential sparks. Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are reporting, giving investors another look at credit quality and consumer health. We have a new set of US data: producer prices and retail sales. On the surface, the numbers were hardly alarming. Producer prices rose 3.0% year on year in November, a touch hotter than expected, while the monthly increase of 0.2% matched forecasts. Retail sales climbed 0.6%, comfortably beating consensus and suggesting the American consumer remains stubbornly willing to spend. In another era, such resilience might have been welcomed. Instead, Wall Street barely stirred. Analysts expect interest rates to stay on hold through the first half of the year, even as traders continue to price in at least two cuts before December. The Supreme Court may also weigh in - perhaps today, perhaps not - on the legality of Mr Trump's tariffs. Certain days, insiders whisper, are more "judgment-friendly" than others. Wednesday is one of them.

Across the Pacific, China has been busy reminding the world that trade gravity still points east. Authorities raised margin requirements for stock purchases on mainland exchanges to 100%, up from 80%, snuffing out a rally in Shanghai and Shenzhen in the name of financial stability. Yet the bigger news came from customs data. China posted a record trade surplus in 2025, defying predictions that tariffs would cripple its export machine. Dollar-denominated exports grew 5.5%, even as shipments to the US fell by 20%.

Asian markets digested this with mixed enthusiasm. South Korea's KOSPI flirted with its first loss of the year before closing up 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei rose another 1%, buoyed by expectations of a muscular fiscal stimulus from the Takaichi government. The yen, meanwhile, slid into territory that usually triggers nervous glances from the Bank of Japan. Mainland China was the regional laggard, the tighter margin rules wiping out earlier gains.

Back in the West, futures point lower. Netflix shares perked up on news of a planned all-cash bid for parts of Warner Bros. Discovery. Nvidia slipped after new security hurdles were placed on exports of advanced AI chips to China. Cybersecurity firms Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet fell after reports that Chinese authorities have told domestic companies to stop using some American and Israeli software. 

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,048
  • Gold: $4,631
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $66.28 (WTI) $61.86
  • United States 10 years: 4.16%
  • BITCOIN: $94,889

In corporate news:

  • SLB is in talks with Chevron and U.S. officials about expanding operations in Venezuela, potentially benefiting from Donald Trump's oil plans.
  • Advocacy groups have urged Apple and Google to remove X and Grok, citing the generation of sexually exploitative AI content by the Elon Musk-owned platforms.
  • Tesla will discontinue one-time purchases of its Full Self-Driving system, making it available only via a monthly subscription after February 14.
  • Amazon plans to appeal an Italian court's reduced €752 million antitrust fine, maintaining it should not be fined at all.
  • RWE secured UK offshore wind contracts for 6.9 GW and formed a partnership with KKR, which acquired a 50% stake in two Norfolk Vanguard projects.
  • Trip.com is under investigation by Chinese regulators for alleged monopolistic practices, causing its shares to drop sharply in Hong Kong.
  • JD Logistics will take Deppon Logistics private for nearly $560 million to strengthen its freight delivery operations.
  • Alibaba Health shares surged 19% amid investor optimism about its AI capabilities in healthcare, supported by its connection to Alibaba.
  • Netflix is preparing an all-cash bid for Warner Bros Discovery, competing with Paramount's higher offer, despite regulatory hurdles.
  • Coca-Cola canceled its plan to sell Costa Coffee after private equity bids fell short, possibly leading to a writedown of the business.
  •  Universal Music Group appointed Hannah Poferl as Chief Data Officer to enhance AIdriven audience engagement strategies.
  •  JPMorgan exceeded trading revenue expectations but fell short on investmentbanking fees.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Cheniere Energy, Inc.: Wolfe Research upgrades to outperform from peerperform with a target price of USD 220.
  • Coherent Corp.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Flex Ltd.: Raymond James upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 75.
  • Nextpower Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Rivian Automotive, Inc.: UBS downgrades to sell from neutral and raises the target price from USD 13 to USD 15.
  • Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 87 to USD 115.
  • Analog Devices, Inc.: Arete Research maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 192 to USD 322.50.
  • Applied Materials, Inc.: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 280 to USD 358.20.
  • Coinbase Global, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 350 to USD 270.
  • Five Below, Inc.: Guggenheim maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 185 to USD 225.
  • Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 55 to USD 68.
  • Halliburton Company: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 29 to USD 35.
  • Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 350 to USD 440.
  • Intel Corporation: UBS maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 40 to USD 49.
  • Lucid Group, Inc.: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 20 to USD 14.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 362 to USD 450.
  • Rocket Lab Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 60 to USD 100.
  • Spotify Technology S.a.: Bernstein maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 830 to USD 650.
  • Strategy Incorporated: China Renaissance Research maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 473 to USD 325.
  • Super Micro Computer, Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its sell recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 34 to USD 26.
  • Woodward, Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 290 to USD 350.