The Paris stock exchange inched up by around 0.2% this morning, hovering near 8,095 points, buoyed by Stellantis (+7%, fueled by expectations of a rebound in the United States and an upgrade from "neutral" to "buy" by UBS), STMicro (+4.3%), and Airbus (+3%).
The session will be punctuated by the release of numerous statistics in the United States, following a lean period caused by the government "shutdown." These will be the last indicators available before the next Federal Reserve meeting, which will begin next Tuesday and clarify its monetary policy on Wednesday, December 10.
With no official data from the Department of Labor due to Washington's administrative closures, the most significant release of the day may well be the ADP monthly private employment survey in the United States, which is expected to show weak job creation--around 5,000 positions--in November.
The human resources consulting firm had highlighted a rebound in private sector job creation in October (+42,000 after -32,000 in September), but the trend has remained subdued for several months now.
"Companies are laying off few employees but are adjusting actual working hours," explain economists at Oddo BHF. "They are especially cautious about new hires, and the use of AI appears to be prompting them to limit the recruitment of recent graduates," they note.
The ISM services index, due at 4 p.m., will also be closely watched after Monday's disappointing ISM release in the services sector, which reignited fears of economic "stagflation" by highlighting both a contraction in output and a rise in factory gate prices.
Other indicators will be published by the end of the week, but the main focus will be on U.S. inflation as measured by the PCE index--the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of price dynamics--which is set to be released this Friday.
Investors hope that all these figures will support the prospect of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, their preferred scenario, and a continued easing of monetary policy across the Atlantic.
Currently, markets are pricing in a more than 89% probability of another rate cut next week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch barometer, meaning any disappointment could be heavily penalized.
In the eurozone, the HCOB composite PMI for overall activity climbed for the sixth consecutive month, from 52.5 in October to 52.8 in November, reaching its highest level since May 2023 and surpassing its historical average (52.4).
In France, the HCOB composite PMI for overall activity rose above the 50 mark, entering positive territory for the first time since August 2024, moving from 47.7 in October to 50.4 in November.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who is scheduled to speak before the European Parliament in Brussels from 2:30 p.m., may also provide new insights regarding economic trends and the future path of interest rates.
In London, Brent crude is up 1.1% at $63.1. The euro is edging up 0.2% against the U.S. dollar, trading at $1.164. On the bond market, the 2035 OAT is at 3.48%, while the equivalent Bund stands at 2.74%.
In French corporate news, Airbus is now targeting around 790 commercial aircraft deliveries for the full year, compared to its previous goal of 820. The aircraft manufacturer is facing supplier quality issues with fuselage panels, impacting the delivery flow of its A320 family. After dropping nearly 7% over the past two sessions, the stock is rebounding by 3% today.
Eutelsat is down more than 7% in Paris after Softbank announced yesterday the sale of 36 million of its subscription rights in the European satellite operator. The offer of 36 million rights equates to about 26 million Eutelsat shares, nearly half of Softbank Group Capital's current stake. Eutelsat shares have now hit their lowest level since mid-June.
Finally, Clariane has announced the sale of a portfolio comprising the real estate of nine nursing and care homes developed between 2010 and 2025 and operated by Korian Belgium, to Belgian property company Care Property Invest.
