The Paris stock exchange remains disappointing, starting the week with a slight decline of 0.05% to around 8,190, while the SBF120 is also in the red despite surges in defense stocks (Exail Techno +16%, Eurofins Scientific +8%, Thales +4.5%, Dassault Aviation +3%).
The DAX40 (+1.3%) hit a new record at 24,850, boosted by a 9.3% jump for Rheinmetal and +4.5% for Siemens, which also allowed the Euro-Stoxx50 (+1.2%) to reach a new high at 5,920.
Symbolically, the Dow Jones (+1.4%) also smashed a record beyond 49,080... with 50,000 already in sight for the end of the week, while the S&P500 is within striking distance of 7,000, climbing +0.8% (to 6,910) in the wake of oil stocks, buoyed by President Trump's "show of force" in Venezuela.

Investors appear particularly calm after the surprise intervention—outside any legal framework or justification—carried out by the United States in Venezuela and the deportation of the South American president to New York.
By launching this bold operation, Washington made it clear to the world that it intends to maintain its superpower status, notably through control of global energy resources.

More pragmatically, the decision demonstrates America's will to bring its major oil companies back into a country where infrastructure is considered degraded and oil reserves remain largely underexploited: the American financial and technological embargo imposed on Venezuela for the past decade has proven highly effective.
For now, the reaction in oil prices is extremely contained: WTI initially lost 1% before rebounding symmetrically by +1% (USD 58 per barrel), while Brent also gained 1% to USD 61.4.

"Venezuelan oil exports remain modest and there is no indication at this stage that the situation will cause any disruption in production or sales," analysts at Danske Bank tempered this morning.

Venezuela was one of the few countries to price its oil in currencies other than the Dollar (notably in Yuan): those who tried this before (Iraq, Libya) did not fare well.
The greenback remains unmoved, unchanged against the Euro around 1.1705, and the "$-Index" is completely flat at 98.15.

The reaction of Asian stock markets perhaps speaks volumes.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei gained nearly 3% by the close on Monday, and the MSCI index grouping Asia-Pacific stocks rose more than 1.2%.

However, this sense of calm may be only superficial, as evidenced by the +4% surge in silver towards USD 77 and a +1.5% rise in gold to USD 4,450.

Investors seem determined to start 2026 by clinging to the well-known adage that the first month of the year is often positive for stock indices, a phenomenon known as the "January effect."

Goldman Sachs forecasts a slight acceleration in eurozone growth for 2026, driven by German fiscal stimulus and resilient consumer spending, despite increased Chinese competition and interest rates being held at their current level.

The eurozone economy should expand by 1.3% in 2026, supported by three major cyclical drivers: Germany's fiscal expansion, easing global trade tensions, and robust growth in real household incomes, according to the bank.

However, this momentum will be limited by structural headwinds, notably the surge in Chinese exports weighing on the industrial competitiveness of Italy and Germany, as well as high energy costs.

On the data front, the real test will come on Friday with the release of December employment figures, a market favorite and all the more closely watched since the Fed has explicitly made the labor market a key determinant of its monetary policy direction.

But a robust figure could spark fears that the central bank acted too soon by cutting rates three times in 2025, potentially prompting a pullback on Wall Street, especially since the S&P 500's more than 16% surge in 2025, after already strong performances in 2023 and 2024, now seems to call for a slight consolidation.

Following the jobs report, the "earnings season" will kick off next week, with the first quarterly results from major banks, including JP Morgan.

Strategists warn that corporate earnings growth will need to deliver in order to justify the high valuations of U.S. equities, but the prospect of both earnings growth and confirmation of the American economy's resilience would certainly pave the way for further strong performances in 2026.

On the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Bund, which had reached highs on Friday, January 2, eased slightly, down 1.5 basis points to 2.883%, while the OAT of the same maturity fell by 2.5 points to 3.5860%, and Italian BTPs by 3.6 points to 3.54%.

In French corporate news, BNP Paribas announced Monday that it had reached an "important milestone" in integrating its asset management activities following the acquisition of AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM), which was formalized over six months ago.

Sanofi reported that the U.S. FDA has accepted for priority review the supplemental biologics license application (sBLA) for its Tzield (teplizumab-mzwv) for young children with stage 2 type 1 diabetes.

Alstom secured three orders totaling 2.5 billion euros. Specifically, the smart and sustainable mobility specialist was chosen to supply rolling stock to a client in the Americas region for approximately 1.4 billion euros.

Saint-Gobain has formed a joint venture with a subsidiary of Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (an Indonesian cement producer 53% owned by Heidelberg Materials), held 60% by the French group and 40% by its local partner. The goal of this joint venture is to acquire Indocement's mortar operations in Indonesia.

Finally, Oddo BHF reiterates its "outperform" rating and price target of 236 euros on Airbus Group, "a stock set to benefit from the gradual improvement of the supply chain and ongoing work on the agility of its industrial tool."