The Paris stock exchange once again underperformed its European and especially Asian peers (the Nikkei surged +3% and then +1.3% in 48 hours, reaching a new all-time high), but managed to reverse course and climb before Wall Street's opening. The CAC40 rose by +0.35% to around 8,240, catching up with the Euro-Stoxx50 and the DAX, which both posted gains of just +0.2%.
The CAC40 remains weighed down by Legrand (-2.3%), Dassault Systèmes (-2.5%), as well as Capgemini and St Gobain (both -2%).

Wall Street continues to show confidence following the United States' surprise intervention in Caracas, which led to the ousting and deportation of the Venezuelan president: the Dow Jones set a new record at 49,150, while the S&P500 is on track for another record close, surpassing 6,930 (just 1% away from hitting 7,000).

This morning, analysts at Mirabaud Bank described this Venezuelan geopolitical sequence as "a structuring strategic signal."
"It is part of a broader reconfiguration of American foreign policy, marked by a geographic refocus, a stricter prioritization, and a willingness to use power dynamics when interests deemed vital are at stake."

After the shock of this intervention, Europeans are now concerned about Donald Trump's expansionist ambitions regarding Greenland. Denmark has already warned that if the United States were to attack a NATO country, it would simultaneously signal the end of the Alliance. This is a political cost that Washington may find hard to bear… or so Europeans hope.
But does Trump really value NATO, an organization he has heavily criticized before returning to the Oval Office?
And to what extent do the United States have the capacity to control Venezuelan oil production without a military presence, which would set a precedent since the painful Iraq episode (an intervention difficult to justify under international law)?

While awaiting developments on these fronts, investors were able to review this afternoon's US PMI data (52.7 versus 54.2 in November): "Business activity continued to grow in December, closing out another quarter of robust expansion, but the resilience of the US economy is showing signs of strain. New orders for service providers posted their weakest growth in 20 months, accompanied by the first decline in manufacturing orders in a year, indicating a broad-based weakening of demand growth," explained Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Furthermore, the US Composite PMI for the month remains nearly in line with consensus at 53. "Growth rates slowed in both manufacturing and services. Only a marginal increase in new order volumes was recorded, the weakest in 20 months, while employment grew only very slightly. Confidence in the future is down compared to November. Meanwhile, price pressures have intensified, with cost inflation reaching its highest level since last May. Selling prices increased markedly in response," S&P Global noted in its analysis.


There were also several statistics from the Old Continent this morning: activity in the French private sector slowed, dropping from 50.4 in November to 50 in December.
Additionally, year-on-year consumer prices in France are expected to rise by 0.8% in December 2025, marking a slight slowdown after the annual rate of 0.9% observed in November, according to preliminary estimates from INSEE at the end of the month.

In Germany, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which covers both manufacturing and services, came in at 51.3 in December, down from 52.4 in November. Expectations were for 51.5. The services PMI fell from 53.1 to 52.7, compared to a consensus of 52.6.
Across the eurozone, the Composite PMI, which covers both manufacturing and services, came in at 51.5 in December compared to 52.8 in November. Expectations were for 51.9. The services PMI dropped from 53.6 to 52.4, against a consensus of 52.6.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Bund eased by -2.8 basis points to 2.844%, while the equivalent OAT yield was at 3.553% (-2.3 basis points).
Yields, however, deteriorated in the United States, with the 10-year up +1.8 basis points to 4.186%, and the 30-year up +2.2 basis points to 4.876%.
In London, Brent crude traded at 61.5 USD (-0.5%). The euro was stable against the greenback, around 1.171 USD.

In French corporate news, Carrefour announced its entry into the Ethiopian market through a franchise agreement with Queens Supermarket PLC, a subsidiary of Midroc Investment Group, thus advancing its international expansion goals.
Airbus announced Tuesday that Taiwanese airline Starlux had received the first of 18 A350-1000 aircraft it ordered, becoming the 11th operator worldwide of the European manufacturer's largest long-haul model.
Maurel & Prom finalized the acquisition of a 61% stake in the Sinu-9 gas permit in Colombia.
Finally, Trigano reported revenues of 833.4 million euros for the first quarter of 2025-26, an increase of 8.3% (including 5.3% organic growth), "in a context of ramped-up motorhome production."