The Paris Stock Exchange started the week with a slight rise, gaining 0.1% to just above 8,200 points, buoyed by Eurofins Scientific (+6.7%), Thales (+3.9%), and Schneider Electric (+1.3%).

Investors appear largely unfazed by the surprise intervention carried out by the United States in Venezuela and the deportation of the South American president to New York. By launching this bold operation, Washington made it clear to the world that it intends to maintain its status as a superpower, notably by exerting control over global energy resources.

More pragmatically, the decision reflects the American desire to bring its major oil companies back into a country where infrastructure is considered degraded and oil reserves remain vastly underexploited. For now, the reaction in oil prices has been extremely muted, with WTI slipping 0.1% (57.2 USD per barrel) and Brent down 0.2% (60.6 USD).

"Venezuelan oil exports remain modest, and there is currently no indication that the situation will cause disruptions in production or sales," analysts at Danske Bank noted this morning.

The reaction from Asian markets may be even more telling. In Tokyo, the Nikkei surged nearly 3% by late session Monday, while the MSCI index grouping Asia-Pacific stocks gained over 1.2%. Investors seem eager to kick off 2026 by clinging to the well-known adage that the first month of the year is often positive for stock indices, a phenomenon known as the "January effect."

Goldman Sachs forecasts a slight acceleration in eurozone growth for 2026, driven by German fiscal stimulus and resilient consumer spending, despite increased Chinese competition and interest rates being held at their current level.

The eurozone economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026, supported by three major cyclical drivers: Germany's fiscal expansion, the easing of global trade tensions, and robust growth in real household incomes, the bank notes.

However, this momentum will be limited by structural headwinds, notably the surge in Chinese exports weighing on the industrial competitiveness of Italy and Germany, as well as high energy costs.

On the data front, the real test will come Friday with the release of December employment figures, a market favorite and even more closely watched since the Fed explicitly made the labor market a key determinant of its monetary policy direction.

But a strong jobs report could raise fears that the central bank acted too soon in cutting rates three times in 2025 and could prompt a pullback on Wall Street, especially since the more than 16% surge in the S&P 500 in 2025, after already strong years in 2023 and 2024, now seems to call for some consolidation.

Following the jobs report, the "earnings season" kicks off next week, with the first quarterly results from major banks, including JP Morgan.

Strategists warn that corporate profit growth will need to be on target to justify the lofty valuations of U.S. equities, but the prospect of both earnings growth and confirmation of the U.S. economy's resilience would certainly pave the way for further strong performances in 2026.

In the bond market, the 10-year Bund yield stands at 2.90%, while the French OAT of the same maturity is at 3.60%.

In French corporate news, BNP Paribas announced Monday that it had reached a "major milestone" in integrating its asset management activities following the acquisition of AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM), which was formalized over six months ago.

Sanofi reported that the U.S. FDA has accepted for priority review its supplemental biologics license application (sBLA) for Tzield (teplizumab-mzwv) for young children with stage 2 type 1 diabetes.

Alstom has secured three orders totaling 2.5 billion euros. Specifically, the smart and sustainable mobility specialist has been chosen to supply rolling stock to a client in the Americas region for approximately 1.4 billion euros.

Saint-Gobain has formed a joint venture with a subsidiary of Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (an Indonesian cement company 53% owned by Heidelberg Materials), held 60% by the French group and 40% by its local partner. The goal of this joint venture is to acquire Indocement's mortar activities in Indonesia.

Finally, Oddo BHF reiterated its "outperform" rating and price target of 236 euros on Airbus Group, "a stock that will benefit from the gradual improvement of the supply chain and the work done to enhance the agility of its industrial operations."

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