First and foremost, Apple needs to win back consumers. Many no longer feel the magic that once accompanied each new device launch with a sense of enchantment. The iPod, iPhone, and iPad, in their successive and increasingly revolutionary iterations, not only redefined usage, but also opened up entire markets. Today, this ability to anticipate and profoundly transform user behavior seems to have waned.

The group will have to step outside its comfort zone. Nowadays, most customers buy Apple products not because they are attracted to new features, but because their old model is damaged or too old, because they want to take better photos and videos, or simply out of brand loyalty. Attracting new customers is becoming more difficult and growth is stagnating: over the last four fiscal years, revenue has grown by only 6.9%, while profits have actually declined slightly. The modest increase in EPS is solely due to share buybacks, which are continuing at a steady pace.

Nevertheless, over the same period, the stock has continued to rise, even though it has fallen slightly since the beginning of the year. Apple enjoys a special status, both in the portfolios of international fund managers and in the composition of index ETFs, making it one of the most widely held stocks in the world. Furthermore, Apple is often considered a technological safe haven. Its strengths make it a safe investment for many, an integral part of a diversified and balanced portfolio: huge cash reserves, a closed ecosystem, a loyal customer base, a brand that remains robust, and one of the largest market capitalizations in the world.

However, this investor support cannot last without a real return to growth. Optimists nevertheless continue to bet on Apple's ability to return to innovation. After all, the brand has already proven in the past that it knows how to reinvent itself. Why shouldn't it be able to do so again?

However, the context remains less favorable than in the past. First, because consumer expectations are changing very quickly, particularly around artificial intelligence. In this area, Apple has shown some lag. True to its culture of internal development, the group must now rely on external partners such as OpenAI's ChatGPT. Second, some recent launches have not generated the hoped-for enthusiasm. The Vision Pro headset, for example, suffers from a lack of practical applications for the general public, and its price and weight have not helped. Another example is Apple TV+, whose content catalog remains much smaller than those of Netflix or Hulu. More generally, since 2020, most new products have been incremental updates.

How can growth bbe boosted?

Mark Gurman is a technology journalist at Bloomberg News. He is particularly knowledgeable about Apple, having written numerous articles about the brand. In an article published last weekend, he listed the innovations to come:

Coming this year:

  • The iPhone Air: thinner, more compact, and lighter, it will feature Apple's first in-house modem chip, offering performance close to that of Qualcomm, which Apple currently uses. Its trade-offs: reduced battery life, a single rear camera sensor, and no physical SIM card.

  • Updates to the Apple Watch, iPad Pro (M5 chip), Vision Pro headset, and AirPods Pro (now equipped with a heart rate monitor).

  • New versions of the HomePod mini and Apple TV.

  • On the services side: launch of AppleCare One, price increase for Apple TV+, and the expected arrival of Apple Health+, an AI-based health coach.

  • Discussions with Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI to transform Siri with artificial intelligence.

And for the so-called disruptive innovations that could really help Apple bounce back:

  • A first foldable iPhone (code name V68), expected next year: it would unfold into a small tablet with four cameras, a C2 in-house modem, and Touch ID instead of Face ID. This would be the first major design breakthrough in over ten years. The iPhone remains by far the largest contributor to the company's revenue. As such, expectations are focused primarily on the smartphone.

  • In 2027, for the iPhone's 20th anniversary, an iPhone 20 with a curved glass design will bring something new compared to the current square screen.

  • Smart glasses without a screen, an area where Apple has all the assets it needs to compete with, or even surpass, Meta and its partners Ray-Ban and Oakley. To make such a product appealing, three essential qualities are required: design, camera quality, and audio quality. Apple already excels in all three areas.

  • A lighter and more affordable version of the Vision Pro headset, designed for the general public.

  • AirPods equipped with cameras.

  • A foldable hybrid device for iPad (tablet)/Mac (computer).

  • A home security camera system.

  • A HomePod with a screen, accompanied by a dedicated home operating system called Charismatic, should also enable Apple to compete with Amazon and Google in the huge smart home market.