By Paul Vieira
OTTAWA--Canada's governing Liberals, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, now find themselves on the cusp of securing a majority of seats in the national legislature after a member of a left-wing opposition party decided to join the ruling party.
The interim leader of Canada's New Democratic Party said in a statement late Tuesday that Lori Idlout, who represents the northern Canadian territory of Nunavut, has decided to join the Carney-led Liberals. The NDP said it was disappointed with Idlout's decision.
Idlout didn't respond to an email and a phone message. Spokeswomen for Carney didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
The political defection puts the Liberal seat count in the Canadian legislature at 170, or two short of a majority. Carney is in a position to win that majority pending the outcome of three special elections scheduled for April 13 to fill vacancies in the legislature. The Liberals are widely expected to win at least two of those three races, as they are taking place in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto.
A majority of 172, while slim, would sharply reduce the risk of a national vote before April 2029, or four years after Carney--a political novice after a career in central banking and the private sector--led the Liberals to a fourth straight electoral victory. In the current minority parliament, the Liberals would require at least one opposition party's backing in order to pass legislation.
Furthermore, the Liberals could face defeat in the event all the opposition parties united to vote against the government on a bill or on a motion of confidence. Such an event would likely trigger an election.
Recent public-opinion polls give the Liberals a solid lead over the opposition Conservatives. If a national election was held today, the Liberals would win 201 of the legislature's 343 seats, according to polling aggregator 338Canada.
In polling released Tuesday, Ottawa-based Nanos Research suggested 46% of voters would back the Liberals, followed by 33% for the Conservatives, and 10% for the New Democrats. Pollsters and political analysts say Canadians largely approve of how Carney is trying to navigate the economy amid an unpredictable and protectionist U.S. administration.
Canada's goods-producing sectors have struggled under the weight of President Trump's hefty tariffs. Still, the economy managed 1.7% growth in 2025, a far cry from predictions last year of a major recession in the offing. Carney has traveled to Asia twice in 2026, as he seeks new markets to reduce Canada's dependence on trade with the U.S. to drive growth. Those trips included resetting diplomatic ties with China and India after years of tumult under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
"Concerns about Canada's relationship with the United States are increasingly recalibrating the national mood," Nik Nanos, president of Nanos Research, said this month, adding that Carney is the clear political beneficiary. "Trade tensions and uncertainty about U.S. policy direction have sharpened voter anxiety, pushing crossborder relations higher on the list of public priorities."
Tuesday evening's development marks the fourth defection in five months from Canada's opposition ranks to the Carney-led Liberals. Three Conservative lawmakers quit their party to join the Liberals, with the latest happening last month.
Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-10-26 2316ET
