First-quarter revenue grew by 2.2% on a like-for-like basis year-on-year to reach 21.08 billion euros, falling short of consensus expectations of 21.83 billion euros.

In France, sales recorded a 1.4% like-for-like increase to 11.14 billion euros, slightly ahead of forecasts which targeted 11.11 billion euros (+1.65%).

Brazil weighed on performance with a 0.8% decline in comparable sales, within an environment marked by sluggish demand and challenging macroeconomic conditions. While food sales remained broadly stable there, non-food categories continued to drag on activity.

In other regions, Belgium recorded moderate growth of 0.8%, while Poland remained on a downward trend (-2.9%). Conversely, Argentina posted a sharp increase in comparable sales (+23.6%), driven by market share gains despite a contraction in volumes. On the back of this momentum, Carrefour confirmed all its financial targets for 2026. The group anticipates growth in recurring operating income and an improvement in its operating margin of more than 25 basis points compared to 2025. Net free cash flow is expected to rise from the 1.6 billion euros recorded last year, while adjusted net income per share is projected to grow in the high single-digit range.

Since late February, Carrefour has been closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East. At this stage, the group has not observed any significant impact on consumer habits or its business operations. It stated that it remains in close contact with its franchise partners in the region and stands ready to adapt to any developments while continuing its efforts to support consumer purchasing power.

Oddo BHF upgrades to Neutral

Overall, Oddo BHF believes the start of the year is well-oriented and consistent with the guidance provided during the 2025 annual results, notably citing the progressive ramp-up of the Cora turnaround and continued pricing efforts to narrow the gap with competitors, thereby supporting market share gains.

In this context, the group, which is unaffected by AI-related challenges and, so far, by the situation in the Middle East, appears better positioned than in 2021 to face a potential new inflationary phase, thanks in particular to internal levers (Cora/Match) and a favorable currency effect in Brazil.

Consequently, Oddo BHF has upgraded its rating to Neutral from Underperform and raised its price target to 15 euros from 12 euros, incorporating a 20-basis-point reduction in beta, reflecting a more moderate risk perception.

The broker noted, however, that the question of the evolving structure of the French market, particularly regarding Casino and Auchan, remains open. Pending probable consolidation, the group's fundamentals and positioning nonetheless appear more robust.

For its part, AlphaValue considers Carrefour's commercial performance in the first quarter of 2026 to be slightly above market expectations: 'In France, Carrefour continues to gain market share, notably thanks to the solid performance of stores acquired from Cora and Match. The group is also benefiting from improved price competitiveness following two waves of price cuts in the spring and the rollout of 'at-cost' promotions.'