"In Germany, the massive economic and technological consequences of a conflict over Taiwan are often underestimated," said the chairman of the German-Taiwanese Parliamentary Group in an interview with Reuters published on Tuesday. The United States and all other industrialized nations are highly dependent on key Taiwanese companies such as the world's largest contract chipmaker, TSMC. "This dependency creates a strong international interest in preventing China from launching an invasion." At the same time, non-military threats such as blockades, hybrid attacks, or subversion must also be taken seriously. "Taiwan's allies are called upon to take early precautions here."
As longtime chairman of the German-Taiwanese Parliamentary Group, he closely follows developments in East Asia. "The list of repressions and threats from the People's Republic of China is long and growing steadily." On every occasion, Beijing tries to erase the name Taiwan or label it as "China". Although Taiwan is de facto independent, the Chinese leadership does everything it can to isolate the country internationally. "This systematic political pressure has intensified significantly in recent years."
"VIOLENT REPRESSION AS AN OPTION"
China launched a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan on Monday. Under the name "Justice Mission 2025", troops, warships, fighter jets, and artillery are involved, according to the military in Beijing. Live ammunition is being used and attacks on land and sea targets are being simulated.
Since at least the New Year's address by state and party leader Xi Jinping in 2019, a clear escalation in rhetoric from Beijing has been observed. Xi has repeatedly made it clear that the so-called "reunification" with Taiwan should be completed within a generation, if necessary by military force. "The Communist Party of China has explicitly declared the violent suppression of Taiwan to be a conceivable course of action," said Willsch.
Although Russia's military difficulties in Ukraine give hope that Beijing will initially prefer non-military means, Taiwan's commitment to its defense capabilities is evident in additional investments of 40 billion dollars over the next five years and the planned increase in defense spending to more than 30 billion dollars from 2026.
"OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE"
The One-China policy has been interpreted in Germany very schematically and excessively restrictively since the years under Chancellor Schröder and especially during the government of Angela Merkel. "Given the significantly changed situation in the Indo-Pacific, this approach is no longer up to date," said Willsch. Political courage is needed to critically review and rebalance this line. "Taiwan should be treated for what it actually is: a democratic constitutional state and a reliable partner."
China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province that should be incorporated by force if necessary. Taiwan rejects these claims: only the island's inhabitants can decide their future. Tensions in the region have recently increased significantly. The trigger was statements by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response.
According to the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics), the island is important for the German economy. "With its advanced chip industry, Taiwan is of great importance for the global digital industry and a key supplier of important IT components," said Merics expert Claudia Wessling. Around 300 German companies from various sectors are active in Taiwan, including major corporations such as Siemens, Bosch, and BASF. German companies are also important suppliers for Taiwanese semiconductor production.
According to Merics, foreign trade volume has been around 20 billion US dollars for years. There are also about 200 research collaborations. In addition to the digitalization sectors, there are good prospects for cooperation in other innovative areas – from green tech, automation, or aerospace to photonics and life sciences.
(Report by Rene Wagner, edited by Olaf Brenner – For inquiries, please contact our editorial team at berlin.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com)
