This is the new normal for Saab, which this morning published excellent quarterly results – unsurprisingly. In the first nine months of fiscal year 2025, its revenue increased by 20%, while its operating profit rose 30% compared to the same period last year.
At the same time, and even if this is anecdotal given that the group's financial position has never posed a risk, the balance sheet has been brought back to a positive net cash position. This puts it in an excellent position on the eve of a new investment cycle.
The company is set to work on a flood of new contracts, as illustrated by its robust order book, which has reached an historic high of SEK 202bn (about $18.4bn). Its order book has literally doubled in five years, with positive momentum across all segments, and of course against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.
This commercial success does not include the announcement earlier this week of the signing of a letter of intent between Saab and Ukraine, which wishes to acquire between 100 and 150 Gripens in the very near future. Multirole, capable and economical, the Swedish fighter jet has won its biggest export contract to date, as the order—if it goes ahead—will be at least three times larger in volume than the Brazilian contract, which was previously its largest.
The group's other segments are also enjoying similar success, notably the land equipment segment, which is developing anti-drone technologies and loitering munitions that have become indispensable on the battlefield, and the maritime segment, which is set to benefit from a massive rearmament of the Scandinavian and British navies to counter Russian presence in the North Sea, the Baltic and the Arctic.
Saab now has a market capitalization of SEK 285bn—including Investor AB's unlisted stake—or $26bn, with net income expected to approach $600m this year and $750m next year. This translates into generous multiples of 43x and 35x expected earnings in 2025 and 2026, almost twice their pre-war average.
Like his counterparts in the sector, CEO Micael Johansson spoke out earlier this year against Europe's overly timid measures to sustainably revive the defense sector. Two-thirds of the Old Continent's military budgets are still directed towards US suppliers, although it is true that a large proportion of this flow is captured by the F-35 program.
