Chevron's Dilemma in Venezuela : Support Trump's -2-

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TotalEnergies Update Looks Strong -- Market Talk

1017 GMT - TotalEnergies issued a strong update across the board, RBC Capital Markets analysts Biraj Borkhataria and Adnan Dhanani write. The French energy company captured short-term refining strength over the fourth quarter, they write. Meanwhile, new barrels in the upstream unit appear cash flow accretive, they add. TotalEnergies will likely remain cautious abut its balance sheet and announce a $750 million share buyback, they write. Shares trade up 1% at 56.71 euros. ([e-mail])

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DAVOS: BHP CEO Says Smelting, Refining Capacity Key to Boosting Metals Supply -- Market Talk

0956 GMT - Supply chain resilience in mining is increasingly in focus, with governments around the world seeking to streamline regulation to speed up the extraction of critical resources, BHP Chief Executive Mike Henry says at the World Economic Forum in Davos. However, boosting supply goes beyond mining alone and requires adequate smelting and refining capacity to turn raw materials into usable metals, he tells a panel on energy security. Henry says there is growing emphasis on developing processing facilities closer to end markets, but highlights challenges including the need for low-cost, reliable energy and investor appetite for what are typically lower-return segments of the value chain. "That's one of the key reasons why things have migrated to China. Because they have had low cost energy and they have people willing to invest in these things," he says. ([e-mail])

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TotalEnergies' Downstream Strength Helps Offset Weaker Prices -- Market Talk

0858 GMT - TotalEnergies delivered a strong downstream performance that will help offset weaker upstream prices, Jefferies analysts Mark Wilson and Kai Ye Loh write. The French energy major's European refining margin marker is strong at $85.7 a metric ton and comes in ahead of the expected $75 a ton, they write. TotalEnergies' good operational performance helped them capture the margin increase, they write. Shares rise 0.45% to 56.36 euros. ([e-mail])

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Oil Slips But Weaker Dollar, China's Economic Data Cap Losses

0851 GMT - Oil prices edge lower despite a weaker dollar and robust economic growth in China, with focus on renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland. Brent crude is down 0.7% to $63.52 a barrel, while WTI slips 0.5% to $58.45 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is down 0.8% to 98.60, providing a floor to oil and the broader commodities complex. "While ICE Brent edged lower [Monday], settling 0.3% lower on the day, it held up relatively well amid the broader riskoff move in markets," analysts at ING say. "Continued firmness in ICE Brent timespreads will also help buoy the market, as it suggests a tighter spot physical market." Meanwhile, China's GDP expanded 5% last year when adjusted for deflation, according to the latest data from the world's largest importer of crude oil. ([e-mail])

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Lindt Prices Could Rise, Volumes Hit on Upward Correction in Cocoa -- Market Talk

0840 GMT - Cocoa prices are expected to rise due to a weaker West African harvest than expected, and this might force Lindt to increase its pricing in fiscal 2026 above levels it expects, Berenberg analysts write in a note. The rise might threaten the volume improvement embedded in Lindt's organic growth guidance, the analysts say. The chocolatier might need to push pricing higher, which could in turn hit the volume recovery expected, the analysts say. According to the analysts, cocoa expert Martin Gilmour expects cocoa prices to rise beyond the level that reflects Lindt's pricing. Shares are down 0.87% or 1,000 Swiss francs, at 114,600 Swiss francs. ([e-mail])

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Gold Breaks Through $4,700 on Weaker Dollar, Safe-Haven Buying -- Market Talk

0839 GMT - Gold prices soar past the $4,700 mark for the first time on a weaker dollar and as fears of renewed trade tensions spark a rush to safe-haven assets. Futures in New York climb 2.9% to $4,725.80 a troy ounce, having reached $4,731.30 earlier in the session. The dollar index is down 0.7% to 98.70, making bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Meanwhile, silver rises 6.7% to $94.45 an ounce. A mix of geopolitical uncertainty and fears over central-bank independence has unsettled investors, driving flows into precious metals after an exceptionally strong performance last year. "Investors are favoring gold and silver over currencies and government bonds amid rising U.S. debt levels and heightened policy unpredictability," ING analysts say. ([e-mail])

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Cocoa Supply to Be Tighter Than Expected, Hitting Chocolate Makers -- Market Talk

0815 GMT - Cocoa supply being tighter than priced in, and the discrepancy between supply and crop dynamics are a negative sign for Barry Callebaut, Lindt and Mondelez, Berenberg analysts write in a note. Following a call with cocoa expert Martin Gilmour, the analysts say the West African main cocoa harvest isn't as strong as market pricing indicates, with volumes expected to drop in February and March. Crop disease is the main driver of the decline in West African cocoa harvest volumes, the analysts say. Callebaut will be the hardest hit of the three companies by the pricing change, as it has the clearest relationship between working capital changes and movement of the commodity, the analysts say. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Rises on Stronger Palm Olein Prices -- Market Talk

0327 GMT - Palm oil prices rise in early Asian trade, mirroring gains in palm olein on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. However, palm oil's price uptrend is unlikely to persist due to concerns over Malaysia's high stockpiles of the commodity, he adds. Ng sees resistance for crude palm oil futures at 4,000 ringgit a ton and support at 4,180 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for April delivery is 35 ringgit higher at 4,102 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Iron Ore Falls on Chinese Steel Production Slowdown -- Market Talk

0303 GMT - Iron ore falls in early Asian trading after the latest Chinese economic data showed a slowdown in steel production, ANZ analysts say in a note. They note that China's total crude steel production fell 4.4% in 2025 to its lowest annual level since 2018. The continuing property downturn in the country also weighed on market sentiment, with data from the National Bureau of Statistics showing home prices further dropping in November, potentially putting more pressure on Beijing to support the housing market, ANZ adds. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 1.7% lower at 784.00 yuan a ton. ([e-mail])

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BHP Update Mixed as Jansen Costs Offset Strong Operations -- Market Talk

0156 GMT - Operationally, BHP delivered a clean 2Q, with beats on both iron ore and copper production, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. Copper also "beat hard on price, and FY26 copper guidance was formally upgraded," which should result in upgrades to consensus earnings estimates, Peker says. He notes that Escondida and Western Australia Iron Ore continue to perform well, and that Copper South Australia continues to show signs of stability. The key offset is Jansen Stage 1 capex that has been revised higher to US$8.4 billion, roughly US$1 billion above RBC's forecast, Peker says. "Alongside working-capital outflows, this pressures near-term FCF [free cash flow] but balance sheet strength remains intact," he says. RBC has a sector perform rating and a target price of A$49.00 on BHP. The stock is down 1.5% at A$48.01 a share. ([e-mail]; @RhiannonHoyle)

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-20-26 1028ET