Chevron's Dilemma in Venezuela : Support Trump's Vision Without Losing Money -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil rises 1.5% to $64.91 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 2.8% to 36.39 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Gold futures are up 3.4% to $4,751 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are down 1.6% to $12,773 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

Chevron's Dilemma in Venezuela: Support Trump's Vision Without Losing Money

Chevron wanted a piece of Nicolas Maduro's Venezuela so it could make significant investments when the country's political fortunes changed. The strongman is out, but President Trump's Venezuela doesn't look much different.

Trump is pressing U.S. oil companies to pour $100 billion into Venezuela's dilapidated oil sector-and to do so as soon as possible-following Maduro's dramatic ouster this month. But a rapid escalation in oil investments in Venezuela isn't in the cards, even for Chevron, the only U.S. oil company operating in the oil-rich Latin American country, people close to the company said.

Before making a big investment there, oil executives want to see stability in the country and higher oil prices that translate to profits, some of the people said. Chevron's caution shows how far Trump's aspirations for a speedy Venezuelan oil revival are from what the U.S. oil industry considers to be a realistic timeline.

OTHER STORIES:

TotalEnergies' Production Increase to Soften Hit of Weaker Prices

TotalEnergies said higher oil-and-gas production will help soften the financial hit from weaker prices.

The French energy major said Tuesday that fourth-quarter oil-and-gas production grew nearly 5% on the same period a year prior when it produced 2.43 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. Production for the whole of 2025 increased close to 4% compared with its guidance of a more than 3% increase, it said.

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Parex Resources Gets Go Ahead for Share Buyback Program

Parex Resources launched a buyback program for up to 10% of its public float of shares.

The independent oil and gas company said Tuesday it has approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange for a normal course issuer bid, under which it can buy for cancellation as many as 9.4 million of its shares from time to time.

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Silvercorp Buys 70% Interest in Gold Projects in Kyrgyzstan for $162 Million

Canada's Silvercorp Metals has struck a deal to buy majority control of gold projects in Kyrgyzstan for $162 million in cash, bolstering its portfolio with assets first identified by Soviet-era geologists in the early 1970s.

The mining company said Tuesday it signed a share purchase deal with Chaarat Gold Holdings and a cooperation agreement with the National Investment Agency under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic.

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BHP Upgrades Copper Output Guidance; Raises Cost of Potash Project Again

BHP Group upgraded its annual copper-production guidance amid record-high prices for the industrial metal, but announced another cost overrun on its giant potash project in Canada.

BHP, the world's biggest miner by market value, said Tuesday that it now expects to produce between 1.9 million and 2.0 million metric tons of copper in its fiscal year through June, compared to a prior estimate of between 1.8 million and 2.0 million tons.

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Chinese Mining Companies Tap Bond Markets for $4.8 Billion as Metal Prices Boom

Two major Chinese mining companies are raising a combined $4.8 billion via bond issues to expand their businesses as prices of metals like copper and gold boom.

CMOC, a major producer of copper and cobalt, is issuing $1.2 billion worth of convertible bonds at a premium, it said in a filing on Tuesday.

MARKET TALKS:

Soybeans Find Support on Completed Chinese Buying Promise -- Market Talk

0959 ET - Soybeans drop in early trading, but are not down as much as corn and wheat in reaction to the evolving fallout over U.S. efforts to annex Greenland. That's because the target of 12 million metric tons of soybean exports to China announced last fall appears to have been reached. The target was originally set for the end of 2025, but meeting the target at all is considered a positive. But further upside for soybeans appears limited, says RJO Futures in a note. "Any additional purchases through the 2025/26 U.S. soybean marketing year [is] deemed 'unlikely' by traders," says the firm, with Brazilian production likely to be more sought-after going forward. CBOT soybeans are down 0.3%, while corn falls 0.4% and wheat slides 1.3%. ([e-mail])

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Oil Futures Hold Gains Amid Mixed Demand Signals -- Market Talk

0922 ET - Crude futures are higher with support from Chinese economic data, while tensions between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland keep the market cautious. China's GDP and industrial production data "reinforced the view that activity in the world's largest crude importer is stabilizing, offering a constructive signal for demand expectations," Naga's Frank Walbaum says in a note. However, "the prospect of a wider U.S.-Europe trade confrontation has injected caution into the outlook, given the potential drag on global growth and, by extension, oil demand." Concerns around oversupply are likely to continue weighing on medium- to long-term risks for crude, he adds. WTI for February delivery is up 0.8% at $59.89 a barrel ahead of today's expiration. Brent is up 0.6% at $64.33. ([e-mail])

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Gold Rises Further as Greenland Standoff Fuels Haven Demand -- Market Talk

1458 GMT - Gold prices extend gains on strong safe-have buying as tensions between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland show no signs of easing. Futures in New York climb 3.1% to $4,743 a troy ounce after touching $4,756.60 earlier in the session. "The U.S. president's latest escalation against NATO allies is likely to further shake market participants' confidence in the U.S. dollar as a safe haven and drive them to other safe havens," Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank says. Silver futures climb 7.1% to $94.76 an ounce, having reached $95.78 earlier. Meanwhile, the dollar index is down 0.8% to 98.55, making precious metals cheaper for holders of other currencies. ([e-mail])

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European Gas Prices Rise on Colder Weather, Low Storage Levels -- Market Talk

1049 GMT - European natural-gas prices rise in midmorning trading, fueled by expectations of stronger demand due to colder temperatures and seasonally low inventories. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract climbs 3.6% to 36.67 euros a megawatt-hour and is up more than 30% in the year-to-date. "We are now in peak demand season, and European gas demand is extremely sensitive to temperatures and wind power generation," DNB analysts say. Colder weather across parts of Europe, coupled with an Arctic blast in China, are expected to drive European gas prices higher as benchmarks must remain competitive to secure LNG cargoes. "Quickly depleting gas inventories are leading to price support as inventories cannot go too low," the analysts say. "They are imperative for European energy security and they must be replenished by the next heating season, thereby pushing up gas prices for the injection season." ([e-mail])

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Greenland Tariff Spat Pressures Grains -- Market Talk

0951 ET - CBOT grains inch lower, with traders unsure of what a potential tariff war between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland could impact agricultural trading. Retaliatory tariffs by the EU are expected to include agricultural goods including soybeans, says AgResource in a note. Money appears to be moving out of many commodities and into precious metals, with gold futures up 3.2% to a new high of $4,741 a troy ounce, and silver up 6.8% to nearly $95 a troy ounce. In early trading grains are mixed, with corn down 0.3%, soybeans up 0.2%, and wheat off 0.7%. ([e-mail])

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U.S. Natural Gas Soars As Extreme Weather Shows Up -- Market Talk

0802 ET - U.S. natural gas futures jump after weekend weather forecasts showed much colder-than-normal temperatures across much of the country, adding the possibility of production freeze-offs to a rise in heating demand. The sudden shift in the outlook surprised a market that had been shrugging off earlier signals of lower late-January temperatures. "The colder outlook is expected to significantly boost heating demand and electricity generation needs," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Nymex natural gas for February delivery is up 24% from Friday's close at $3.847/mmBtu. March gas is 13% higher at $3.048/mmBtu. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Rises on Prospect of Seasonal Festive Demand -- Market Talk

1043 GMT - Palm oil prices ended higher. Improving market sentiment ahead of seasonal festive demand provided support, Kenanga Futures analysts say in a note. They also attribute the gains to continued buying interest driven by palm oil's price advantage over soy oil and sunflower oil. Kenanga Futures sees support for CPO futures at 4,045 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,135 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for April delivery closed 28 ringgit higher at 4,095.00 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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LME Copper Falls on China Demand Concerns -- Market Talk

1031 GMT - Copper prices fall in midmorning trade, with futures on the London Metal Exchange down 1.1% to $12,839 a metric ton amid concerns over demand in top buyer China after prices hit a record. "This has been reinforced by a regulatory clampdown on high-frequency trading following a burst of speculative activity, while exchange-monitored inventories at an eight-year high have helped offset supply concerns," Saxo Bank analysts say. Meanwhile, President Trump's threat to impose 10% tariffs on imports from several European countries has stoked worries that escalating trade tensions could weigh on global growth and metals demand. A decision to hold off on broad tariffs on critical mineral imports also eased expectations that a U.S. levy on copper imports would be introduced--a prospect that has contributed to heavy stockpiling in the U.S. and tighter supplies elsewhere last year, pushing prices higher. ([e-mail])

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01-20-26 1028ET