Jan 14 (Reuters) - China's steel exports hit a record monthly high in December, fuelled by front-loading driven by Beijing's announcement of an export licence requirement for shipments from 2026.
The world's largest steel producer shipped 11.3 million metric tons of the metal used in construction and manufacturing last month, the highest for a single month, data from the country's General Administration of Customs showed on Wednesday.
Additionally, iron ore imports in the world's largest consumer hit a record high last year as low inventories and improved steel margins encouraged mills to book more cargoes.
KEY POINTS:
* Soybeans: December imports at 8.04 mmt, up 1.3% y/y
* Crude oil: December imports at 55.97 mmt, up 17% y/y
* Unwrought copper: December imports at 437,000 mt, up 2.3% m/m
* Coal: December imports at 58.59 mmt, up 12% y/y
* Iron ore: December imports at 119.65 mmt, up 8.2% m/m
* Steel: December exports at 11.3 mmt, up 16% y/y
* Rare earths: December exports at 4,392.1 mt, down 20% m/m
Preliminary table of commodity trade data Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data:
COMMENT ON SOYBEANS
WANG WENSHEN, ANALYST, SUBLIME CHINA INFORMATION, SHANDONG:
"China's soybean imports in December were broadly in line with market expectations. Delays in customs clearance have slowed the flow of imported soybeans, prompting some crushing plants to suspend operations or curb deliveries amid supply shortages."
"Looking ahead, soybean arrivals are expected to total 7.48 million tons in January and 5.2 million tons in February, pointing to a tightening supply outlook."
COMMENT ON IRON ORE
BAI XIN, ANALYST, HORIZON INSIGHTS, SHANGHAI:
"We forecast global iron ore output to grow by 2.5% year-on-year in 2026, and shipments to China are expected to increase by between 36 million and 38 million tons, piling pressure on prices this year."
PEI HAO, ANALYST, FREIGHT INVESTOR SERVICES, SHANGHAI:
"China's robust iron ore imports in 2025 were partly because miners accelerated their shipment targets to bolster financial health. Meanwhile, healthy profit margins at Chinese steel mills underpinned robust iron ore consumption."
"In 2026, China's overall iron ore demand is expected to remain stable."
COMMENT ON STEEL
PEI HAO, ANALYST, FREIGHT INVESTOR SERVICES, SHANGHAI:
"The record high steel exports last year was because of price advantages as Chinese steel mills adopted a "price-for-volume" strategy to offset domestic oversupply. Additionally, there was a pre-emptive wave of "rush exports" driven by expectations of impending tariff hikes."
"Beijing's introduction of export licensing requirements will drive up compliance costs and curb exports of low-quality semi-finished steel products."
"High-quality steel products typically feature lighter weight and greater durability, which translates into lower shipment volumes measured in tons. Against this backdrop, we anticipate a decline in China's steel exports in 2026."
COMMENT ON CRUDE OIL
YE LIN, VICE PRESIDENT, RYSTAD ENERGY, SINGAPORE
"Average stock build in 2025 was 430,000 bpd, up from 84,000 bpd in 2024, with half of it driven by new storage capacity from both state-owned and independent companies in the country."
"Energy security is the primary driver of China's stockpiling amid rising geopolitical tensions. Low oil prices also matter, as the average crude cost in China was $10 per barrel lower than in 2024 amid sanctions."
EMMA LI, ANALYST, VORTEXA, SINGAPORE:
"China's sea-borne crude imports climbed to 12mbd in December 2025, marking a new record despite a not-fully-recovered domestic economy. More than 35 million barrels, or 1.1 million barrels per day of these arrivals flowed into onshore crude inventories, leaving adjusted refinery intake broadly flat month on month."
"While over 12 million barrels of stockbuilds during December occurred in Guangdong, primarily at state-owned storage facilities linked to Sinopec Maoming and PetroChina Jieyang refineries, nearly 15 million barrels were accumulated in Shandong. This aligns with record-high sanctioned crude imports into Shandong during November-December."
"By contrast, imports from Iran fell below 1.3 million bpd in December, from more than 1.5 million bpd in November, as increased Russian supplies displaced some Iranian barrels."
LINKS: For details, see the official Customs website (www.customs.gov.cn)
BACKGROUND:
China is the world's biggest crude oil importer and top buyer of coal, copper, iron ore, and soybeans.
(Reporting by Colleen Howe, Amy Lv, Sam Li, Ella Cao; Editing by Sumana Nandy)




















