China to Implement Export Controls on Some Steel Products -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

-- Brent crude oil is flat at $61.28 a barrel.

-- European benchmark gas is up 1.7% to 27.26 euros a megawatt-hour.

-- Gold futures are up 1.5% to $4,379.20 a troy ounce.

-- LME three-month copper futures are up 0.3% to $11,867 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

China to Implement Export Controls on Some Steel Products

China plans to implement a steel export licensing mechanism next year, a move that could curb outflow of the metal that has sparked trade tension across the globe.

The country's commerce ministry and the General Administration of Customs said in a joint statement on Friday that exporters would need to obtain permission to ship certain steel products starting Jan. 1. The statement didn't provide a reason behind the decision.

China's exports of steel products expanded 6.7% to 108 million tons in the January-November period from the comparable year-earlier period, and are on track to hit a record in 2025.

OTHER STORIES:

The Big Fight Over a 'Fish Disco' at a British Power Plant

LONDON-The aim at first was simple: prevent murder on the seafloor.

Over a decade ago, Britain's environmental regulator approved a new coastal nuclear power station on the proviso its cooling system wouldn't suck in millions of fish from the Bristol Channel.

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Australia Pledges Deal to Keep Giant Rio Tinto Aluminum Smelter Open

Australian federal and state governments will work with Rio Tinto's Tomago Aluminium to keep the country's largest aluminum smelter open after its current electricity contract ends in 2028, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

Tomago Aluminium, in which Rio Tinto holds a roughly 52% stake, said in October that it might need to shut the 42-year-old smelter once its power-supply contract with Australian utility AGL Energy ends. It said it had been searching since 2022 for "an economically viable energy solution" beyond

MARKET TALKS:

Copper Could Hit $12,000 Next Year, ANZ Says -- Market Talk

1344 GMT - Copper prices could reach $12,000 a metric ton by the end of next year as the market moves further into a deficit, according to analysts at ANZ Research. "Renewed supply disruptions this year have triggered a rally in copper and other base metals," Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari say. "However, the length of the rally suggests there is more to this than just supply disruptions. Demand continues to beat expectations, despite concerns over the global economy." ANZ raised its near-time forecast and now expects copper to hold above $11,000 a ton next year--and potentially reach $12,000 by year-end--compared with its previous forecast range of $9,800-$10,800-a-ton. ([e-mail])

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LME Copper Climbs to Record High on U.S. Rate Cuts, Supply Worries -- Market Talk

1331 GMT - Copper prices shoot to a new record, boosted by the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut this week and hopes for further easing next year. Futures on the London Metal Exchange trade at $11,822 a metric ton after touching an intraday high of $11,952 a ton earlier in the session. Prices have risen nearly 35% this year. "The combination of lower interest rates and stronger economic growth should boost copper demand," ANZ analysts say. The rally is also driven by persistent concerns over a supply squeeze due to heavy stockpiling in the U.S. and a series of mine disruptions this year. "The rally has unfolded despite continued economic softness in China, underlining that the current copper story is increasingly driven by supply constraints and demand tied to energy transition and AI-related infrastructure," Saxo analysts say. ([e-mail])

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Gold Gains on Hopes for Further U.S. Rate Cuts, Haven Demand -- Market Talk

1317 GMT - Gold prices extend gains in afternoon trading, buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further next year and persistent geopolitical uncertainties fueling safe-haven demand. Futures in New York rise 1.3% to $4,368.40 a troy ounce, while spot gold is up 1.2% to $4,279.34 an ounce. "Although there are signs of a pause at the next [Fed] meeting in January, the door remains open for further interest rate cuts after that," analysts at Commerzbank say. "We expect more significant interest rate cuts than the market, especially after Powell's successor as Fed chair takes office in May." Meanwhile, silver futures rise 0.3% to $64.79 an ounce, while platinum climbs 4% to $1,707.80 an ounce. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Falls Amid Worries Over High Inventories -- Market Talk

1017 GMT - Palm oil fell amid worries over high inventories. Malaysian stock levels remained on an uptrend, rising by 13% on month for November, Hong Leong Investment Bank says in a research note. Seasonally lower output and higher domestic consumption were more than offset by sharply lower exports, the bank says. Stock levels will likely decline gradually over the next few months, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for February delivery fell 45 ringgit to 4,018 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Glencore's Copper Growth Plans Too Long-Dated -- Market Talk

1003 GMT - Glencore isn't best placed to benefit from near-term copper prices, UBS analysts write. Shares in the commodity group are up 25% over the past three months and are likely to get a modest earnings boost from higher copper prices in 2026, the analysts write. However, copper growth plans are too far away to benefit from bullish prices over the near term, they write. Copper mining stocks, rather than diversified miners, are preferable, the analysts write. Glencore shares trade down 0.2% at 382.25 pence. ([e-mail])

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London's Precious Metal Miners Climb as Gold, Silver Rise -- Market Talk

0935 GMT - London's precious metal miners jump as gold and silver prices continue to rally. In New York, gold futures rise 0.8% to $4,347 a troy ounce, while silver futures trade at record highs of $64 a ounce. Despite a slightly hawkish release from the Federal Reserve, traders are taking comfort from policymakers leaving the door open to more cuts next year, ANZ analysts write. Hochschild Mining climbs over 8%, while Fresnillo rises 5.8%. Endeavour Mining is up 3.6%, while Pan African Resources gains 4%. ([e-mail])

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Oil Poised for Weekly Loss as Traders Focus on Ukraine, Bearish Supply Outlook

0851 GMT - Oil prices rise, but are poised for a significant weekly loss amid diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and overall bearish fundamentals pointing to an oversupplied market next year. Brent crude is up 0.5% to $61.59 a barrel, while WTI gains 0.6% to $57.77 a barrel. However, the oil benchmarks are down 2.6% and 3.2%, respectively, on week. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are expected to be the main focus next week, while traders also monitor rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. Meanwhile, the IEA said the market's projected surplus has narrowed, but a large supply overhang continues to cloud the outlook. OPEC's supply and demand forecasts, instead, point to a relatively balanced market next year. "This is a sharp reversal from outlooks earlier this year which pointed to tighter markets," ANZ analysts say. ([e-mail])

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Gold Poised for Weekly Gains as Traders Hope for More Fed Rate Cuts -- Market Talk

0835 GMT - Gold prices are on track for a weekly gain after the Federal Reserve delivered a much-anticipated quarter-point interest-rate cut this week and as investors hope for further easing next year. Futures in New York rise 0.2% to $4,322.20 a troy ounce in early trading and are up 1.9% on the week. Meanwhile, silver futures trade at a record high of $64 an ounce. "While silver has attracted speculative momentum on the back of the deficit narrative, gold's moves remain more tightly linked to the broader policy outlook and real yields," Sucden Financial analysts say. "We expect gold to continue behaving as the more grounded barometer of macro sentiment, with upside likely capped in the near term unless the dollar weakens much further."([e-mail])

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Comex Gold Futures' Bullish Momentum Growing Stronger, Daily Chart Shows -- Market Talk

0653 GMT - Comex gold futures' bullish momentum is growing stronger, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Aiman Kamil Bin Ahmad Shauqi says in a research report. The futures' upward movement on Thursday has kept prices above both 20- and 50-day simple moving averages, the analyst notes. This has reinforced the precious metal's bullish setup and weakened the bearish engulfing pattern formed a day earlier. The commodity now has a stronger position after clearing its consolidation range, the analyst says. Price action shows gold bulls remain in control as the chart points toward the $4,400/oz resistance level, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.1% higher at $4,281.75/oz. ([e-mail])

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Oil Rises, Aided by IEA's Forecasts for Smaller Surplus in 2025, 2026

0118 GMT - Oil rises in Asia's morning session. The International Energy Agency, which represents major oil-consuming nations, cut its forecasts for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels a day this year and 2.4 million next year, from earlier projections of 3.1 million and 2.5 million barrels a day, respectively. However, oil prices remain volatile, with Brent crude oil hovering in a range of $60/bbl-$65/bbl and weekly 4%-7% price swings that continue to signal heightened uncertainty, CIMB Securities analyst Nurzulaikha Azali says in a research report. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.6% higher at $57.95/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.5% higher at $61.60/bbl. ([e-mail])

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-12-25 0907ET