By Kirk Maltais
-- Corn for December delivery rose 1% to $4.17 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Wednesday, turning away from trading negative amid speculation of further declines in corn yields.
-- Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.1% to $10.07 a bushel.
-- Wheat for December delivery fell 0.3% to $4.98 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Back to Basics: CBOT corn futures turned the corner around midday, turning positive on short covering by traders.
Fund traders have purchased anywhere from 10,000 to 12,000 contracts Wednesday, AgResource said in a note, with the firm adding that technical price levels around $4.10 a bushel sparked the buying. "The bulls and the bears are caught in a dance seeking leverage," said the firm.
Traders speculate that yields encountered by farmers this month may be well off from where the USDA last forecast them, although the agency remains shut down.
Cutting Off the Flow: CBOT grain futures responded overnight after President Trump posted on his Truth Social account that the U.S. is "considering terminating business with China having to do with cooking oil" in response to China's continued lack of purchasing of U.S. soybean exports.
The reaction from grain traders was muted in morning trade, said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. Bergman speculates that soybeans may stay rangebound as China remains absent from buying U.S. exports.
INSIGHT
Soaring Stock: Agricultural stocks rose Wednesday in response to Trump's Truth Social post threatening to ban exports from China of used cooking oil with the post published late in trading Tuesday.
Shares of Bunge Global SA led the S&P 500 higher Wednesday, up 12% to $92.30 late in trading. Bunge is up nearly 19% year-to-date, while shares of competitor ADM rose roughly 3% to $63.63 a share -- making it nearly 26% that ADM has risen year to date. Both Bunge and ADM operate several soybean crush plants nationwide, which make soybean oil among other products. Soybean oil is an ingredient used to produce biofuels, but before tariffs were introduced faced competition from used cooking oils that are cheaper to source.
Looking for Action: Trump has made many promises that excite U.S. soybean farmers, but now farmers want to see them followed up with action from the administration.
"As trade negotiations continue deep into harvest season, we continue to hope that discussions can get back on track to restore our market access to the China market," said a spokesperson with the American Soybean Association. The ASA also calls for the EPA to finalize higher fuel-blending requirements for renewable fuels in 2026 and 2027, as well as a plan proposed last month to reallocate blending volumes small refineries are exempted from toward larger refineries.
Down to the Wire: Some analysts were hopeful China won't be able to sustain a full-on trade war if relations degrade further and a new 100% tariff is placed on Chinese imports by the U.S.
"I still believe Xi and Trump will meet and the 100% tariff and higher duties for Chinese shipping should make Xi blink," said Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group. "The weak Chinese economy would not be able to sustain that much of a trade war."
AHEAD
Note: The government shutdown may impact the timing of USDA reports and data releases.
-- The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at noon EDT Thursday.
-- Rail provider CSX Corp. is due to release its third-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Thursday.
-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday.
-- The CFTC is due to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-15-25 1559ET
