By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for March delivery rose 1% to $4.48 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, with lower ending stocks for U.S. corn being the noteworthy change of the few made in Tuesday's WASDE report from the USDA.

--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.1% to $5.34 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for January delivery fell 0.6% to $10.87 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Few and Far Between: The WASDE report from the USDA left production figures for corn, soybeans, and wheat unchanged from the November report--with the major change to the U.S. outlook being a larger draw on U.S. corn stocks coming from export demand. "USDA largely froze U.S. balance sheets and made only incremental global tweaks, reinforcing a neutral, wait-for-January posture," said RJO Futures in a note following the report's release.

Limited Shake-Up: The USDA surprised traders with a cut made to corn ending stocks due to stronger export demand, but volatility in general was limited post-report, suggesting that traders may be resigned to balancing their books and closing up shop for the rest of the year. "Look for the market to resume its mostly sideways trade through year-end," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note.


INSIGHT


Santa Rally: The surprising change to U.S. corn ending stocks made by the USDA may open the door for a rally to close out the year. "We've been pretty upbeat on corn due to the rock-solid demand throughout the year, which was further confirmed in today's report," said Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures. "I think this could help put a tailwind into prices to round out the year, which would also align with historical/seasonal price patterns."

On the World Stage: While the USDA was mostly restrained in its assessment of U.S. crops, on the world side it made several moves in production expectations. It lowered its outlook for Ukrainian corn by 3 million metric tons, while also slightly reducing its view of production out of southeastern Asia. For wheat, the USDA largely lifted its view of production out of major suppliers for the 2025/26 marketing year.

In Agreement: What the USDA said Tuesday about Ukrainian corn backs up a report issued by Black Sea consultancy SovEcon this morning, which said that Ukraine may export less corn in the 2025/26 marketing year. SovEcon said that cumulative Ukrainian corn exports from July through November totaled 3.7 million tons, which is the lowest level in eight years. "The main reason for sluggish exports has been harvest delays caused by rains," said the firm. SovEcon also says that a saturated world export market for corn is also behind the cut, as is elevated fighting between Ukraine and Russia.


AHEAD


--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its Grain Crushings report at 3 p.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report covering the week ended Nov. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-09-25 1523ET