By Kirk Maltais
--Corn for March delivery rose 0.7% to $4.28 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, turning higher as USDA data shows corn export sales well exceeding last year's pace.
--Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.6% to $10.66 3/4 a bushel.
--Wheat for March delivery rose 0.3% to $5.29 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Strong Showing: Sales of U.S. corn exports have been strong in the 2025/26 marketing year that began in September, said Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net in a note. "If we continue to see strong export sales and inspections, there is a strong likelihood the USDA could increase the annual export projection on corn," said Bratland. Overall grain inspections remain ahead of last year's pace by nearly 50% at 32.6 million metric tons, the USDA said Monday. Corn demand has been a mover for the futures contract in recent months, and the announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and India may spur even more strength for U.S. corn exports.
Cause and Effect: Futures for soybeans and soybean oil climbed after the Department of Treasury and the IRS published proposed regulations for the 45z tax credit -- a credit for clean fuel production under the One Big Beautiful Bill. The credit is now extended to fuel produced in the U.S. through December 2029, and is limited to fuel produced using feedstock grown in the U.S., Mexico, or Canada. The new proposal garnered applause from the American Soybean Association and the National Oilseed Processors Association, although other analysts note that there's some questions about the tax credit that remain unanswered.
The Bigger Picture: Commodity futures across the board were stronger Tuesday, especially precious metals. Traders appeared to shake off Friday's news of President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, which at the time spurred a rally in the U.S. dollar index and prompted profit-taking by investors across the commodities spectrum, said ING Economics in a note. The U.S. dollar index is down 0.2% Tuesday.
INSIGHT
Turning Sour: U.S. farmers are bracing for tougher times in the upcoming crop year. In its monthly Ag Economy Barometer, farmers surveyed by Purdue University and the CME Group say that they experienced worsening financial conditions versus last year, amid tougher competition with Brazil for the agricultural export market. "What stands out this month is the growing number of producers who report that higher operating-loan needs stem from carrying over unpaid debt from the previous year," said Michael Langemeier of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "That points to increasing financial pressure heading into the year ahead."
Raising the Bar: Research firm StoneX raised its outlook for the size of the Brazilian soybean crop this year, which was already expected to be a record. The firm forecasts that Brazil will produce a record 181.6 million metric tons of soybeans, up 4 million tons from the firm's prior forecast and up 13 million tons from last season. Corn is also expected to have a strong year in Brazil, with StoneX forecasting production of 135.5 million tons. That's off only 4 million tons from the record, said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a separate note.
AHEAD
--Bunge Global SA will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results at 6 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-03-26 1525ET
