Cruise operators ride the pricing wave

Demand for cruises remains very strong, despite significant price increases. In December, listed fares rose by an average of 4% y-o-y, with particularly sharp gains at MSC (+10%) and Viking (+9%). While purchase intentions appear more uneven than over the summer, they remain broadly solid across operators. Jefferies nonetheless notes a possible short-term negative impact linked to the release of the Netflix documentary Poop Cruise. Even so, digital indicators continue to trend well: sector web traffic is up 7%, while app users are up 24% over the year. MSC stands out for a sharp acceleration thanks to its new US routes.

Airlines: a K-shaped economy

 Jefferies reports that the number of scheduled flights worldwide is up 1% y-o-y, although is still 1% below pre-Covid levels (and 7% below 2019 in the US). While a survey shows that short-term leisure travel intentions fell by one point between November and December, analysts believe sector profits will concentrate among true premium leaders, namely Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, "where positive revisions come from a winning strategy rather than simple y-o-y comparison effects”.

Car rentals: Avis resists, Hertz under pressure

 The airline momentum indirectly benefits the car-rental sector, where business remains intrinsically tied to airport flows. While Avis appears to be holding its own with revenue up slightly (+1%), Hertz faces a more delicate situation, with a decline in revenue expected (-2%), weighed on by pricing pressure.

The sector's competitive environment limits companies' ability to materially improve margins. Jefferies therefore prefers Avis, seen as best positioned in a market that is still uncertain.

Hotels: US RevPAR under strain

 North America's hotel sector is going through turbulent times, with revenue per available room (RevPAR) remaining under pressure across all segments, in contrast to the strength of European and Asia-Pacific markets. The US is notably facing a drop in inbound tourism.

Globally, hotel spending is still rising by about 7% y-o-y, driven both by more room nights (+4%) and higher average prices (+3%). Jefferies nevertheless questions online booking platforms' ability to maintain their momentum amid a US slowdown. Among groups, Hilton remains best positioned, while Hyatt showed a significant rebound in booking intentions in December.

Theme parks: Orlando loses momentum

 On the theme-park side, the picture is also mixed. While theme-park websites continued with growth (+10%), the Orlando destination is showing unusual signs of fatigue. Disney World notably recorded a sharp drop in the use of its mobile app in December (-19%), while Universal Orlando continues to capitalize on anticipation around its future Epic Universe park to support its web traffic (+2%). A notable exception is Six Flags, whose spectacular digital traffic figures are explained, however, by the technical consolidation of all its brands under a single interface.

Heightened vigilance in the face of macroeconomic risks

 The outlook for H1 2026 remains clouded by major macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly linked to the situation in the US labor market. The historically tight correlation between the unemployment rate and travel volumes suggests that caution is warranted, especially as consumer confidence indicators and small-business hiring intentions are declining.

In this context of a potential slowdown in consumption, Jefferies favors solid names such as Airbnb (Buy), Avis (Buy), Disney (Buy), Hilton (Buy) and United Airlines (Buy), while remaining vigilant about online booking platforms' ability to maintain their current growth pace in the face of a sluggish domestic market.