The US intervention in Venezuela could have resulted in heightened volatility in risk markets such as equities. Although, in fact this is not at all the case. To call it a "non-event" would be only a short step - one that should not be taken too quickly. Admittedly, so far the dollar has not budged an inch, the upward trend in equity markets has not been derailed, and interest rates - traditionally quick to detect any anomaly that is invisible to less experienced investors - have shown no signs of any strain. Still, close attention will be paid to the behaviour of risk assets (Gold, S&P 500, Crude Oil, VIX) over the coming days, to avoid being caught out, just in case things do not go as expected.
Technically, the EUR/USD remains well bid as long as 1.1695/55 is not broken, with a likely move back towards the 2025 highs at 1.1920. Conversely, a break of support should send the European currency back to 1.1545.
The USD/JPY is flat between 154.28 and 157.90. A breakout is still expected, with a test of 158.88 recorded in January 2025 anticipated. Meanwhile, the USD/CHF is trading near the lower bound of its consolidation channel between 0.7830 and 0.8130.
Commodity-linked currencies continue to regain ground in a scattered fashion. The USD/CAD has turned lower on the back of a break below 1.3835 and is heading towards its June 2025 lows at 1.3535. The first resistance to accompany the bearish move sits at 1.3822, followed by 1.3880. The Aussie has reached an initial target at 0.6710, a break above which opens the way to 0.6870/0.6940. Finally, the Kiwi is struggling to lift off despite having traded 0.5790/5800. Even though it is far from a racehorse, it will be given the benefit of the doubt as long as 0.5730/10 holds, with 0.5900 or even 0.6010 in sight.
