The Dollar is gradually losing its safe-haven status as markets are buoyed by the materialization of a U.S.-Iran "deal" following 38 "premature" announcements by Donald Trump.

To gauge the current mood on Wall Street, the VIX (the fear gauge) has plunged -10% toward 16.00, its lowest level since early March. Paradoxically, Gold, which also serves as a hedge against international tensions and inflationary risk, has jumped +3% toward $4,350, while Silver has surged +13% in three days to $70.2 (even though prices should theoretically stabilize with the reopening of Hormuz).

The "fait accompli" of Trump's 39th announcement, finally a conclusive one, might have played a role, despite the fact that it is merely an "agreement to finally agree to negotiate." This comes after four months of totally divergent and difficult-to-reconcile demands, with the Iranian position remaining unchanged throughout.

The latest American concessions were a prerequisite for the principle of a lasting ceasefire, but there are so many imponderables (Lebanon, Syria, Gaza) that talks could be broken off at any moment.

The market chooses to see the glass as half full, cheering the decline in oil prices, with WTI retreating toward $80.5 and Brent toward $83.3.

The Dollar Index posted its third consecutive session of decline (-0.15%, nothing spectacular) as the retreat in crude prices reduces the probability of a Fed rate hike before the end of summer.
The Euro is flat at $1.1600, as is the Swiss Franc (edging up 0.04% against the Euro), while the Dollar firmed by 0.15% against the Yen, the Pound, and the Canadian Dollar.

U.S. economic data had no impact on the greenback: industrial production rose by 0.1% in May, missing the expected 0.3% increase, following a revision of the previous month from +0.7% to +0.9%. Capacity utilization edged up +0.1% to 76.2%.
The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index fell by -14 points to 5.7 in June, down from 19.6 in May, whereas a more modest decline to 13.5 had been anticipated.
In the housing sector, the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) monthly housing market index fell by -2 points sequentially to 35 in June, as rising mortgage rates dampen activity. This figure came in below consensus expectations but remains above the previous year's level of 32.