"The outlook for 2026 is positive. Lower inflation and expansionary fiscal policy are boosting household purchasing power, making the domestic economy an increasingly important driver of growth this year," the bank writes.
Expectations are that the Swedish economy will grow by 2.8 percent this year, compared to the previously expected 2.6 percent. Next year, growth is projected to rise by 2.7 percent, up from the earlier forecast of 2.6 percent.
Regarding inflation, Danske Bank predicts it will reach 1.1 percent this year, a significant downward revision from 1.6 percent. At the same time, inflation is now expected to be 1.7 percent in 2027, compared to the previous forecast of 2.0 percent.
Furthermore, Danske Bank states that monetary policy now faces a different set of challenges compared to last year. The Riksbank will need to balance temporarily low inflation with increasingly strong economic conditions.
"Although uncertainty is high, especially with the appointment of a new board member in March, we still expect the interest rate to remain unchanged until the end of the year, when it will likely be raised to 2.0 percent," writes Danske Bank.
| Sweden, indicator | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| (in parentheses forecast from 3 December) | |||
| GDP, calendar-adjusted | 1.8 | 2.8 (2.6) | 2.5 (2.4) |
| CPIF inflation | 2.6 | 1.1 (1.6) | 1.7 (2.0) |
| Policy rate | 1.75 | 2.00 (2.00) | 2.25 (2.25) |
