In an interview with CBS News on Monday, Trump said he considered the war against Iran to be "virtually over" and that Washington was "very far ahead" of its originally estimated timeframe of four to five weeks. According to insiders, the US President is also considering measures to calm the markets. These could include an easing of oil sanctions against Russia and the release of strategic reserves.
North Sea Brent and US WTI crude fell by as much as eleven percent on Tuesday to 88.05 and 84.43 dollars per barrel, respectively. At the beginning of the week, prices for the "black gold" had shot up to 119.50 dollars per barrel due to fears of supply bottlenecks, the highest level since mid-2022. The rapid price increase of more than 60 percent at times since the start of the war in late February fueled economic and inflation concerns. Since last Monday, the Dax has seen a decline of just over five percent.
DANGER TO MARKETS NOT YET AVERTED
However, the danger to the stock markets has not yet been averted. "US President Trump may unilaterally declare the war nearly over, but the question remains whether Iran shares that view," warned Jochen Stanzl of Consorsbank. "Above all, proof must now be provided that the Strait of Hormuz is once again safe for the passage of dozens of tankers looking to export oil and gas to the world." Approximately one-fifth of the global oil supply flows through the strait between Iran and Oman.
On the foreign exchange market, many investors turned away from the US currency, which is often sought as a safe haven. The Dollar Index lost up to 0.7 percent, falling to 98.49 points. The Euro traded 0.2 percent firmer at 1.1656 dollars. On Monday, the Dollar Index had temporarily risen to 99.695, its highest level since November 2025. However, analysts expected the setback for the dollar to be short-lived as long as oil transport and production across the Middle East do not normalize. It remains unclear whether the Iranian regime has any interest in de-escalation, said Rodrigo Catril of National Australia Bank. The dollar has recently seen increased demand because the US, as a major oil producer, is better positioned to withstand energy price shocks than other regions dependent on imports.
AIRLINES ON THE RECOVERY PATH
Among individual stocks, airline shares moved onto a recovery path following the slump caused by the oil price shock. Lufthansa shares gained up to eight percent, making them the biggest winner in the MDax. Air France-KLM rose by more than seven percent at times, while Ryanair climbed around five percent. In some cases, airlines also scored points with investors through higher ticket prices. The Scandinavian airline SAS announced that it had temporarily increased prices due to rising kerosene costs. Airlines in the Far East also reacted with price hikes.
In the Dax, Volkswagen and Porsche provided talking points. Despite a slump in profits in 2025 for VW, shares of the carmaker – which have lost a good 13 percent since the start of the Iran war – rose by as much as 4.3 percent. According to one trader, the balance sheet offered hope for slight progress: overall, the figures showed VW in a slow forward gear, he explained. According to Volkswagen, the return on sales for the current year is expected to be between 4.0 and 5.5 percent, compared to 2.8 percent in 2025. Shares of the sports car subsidiary Porsche, which earned almost nothing operationally in the crisis year of 2025, rose by up to 3.3 percent in the MDax. They, too, had come under significant pressure during the recent market sell-off.
(Report by: Daniela Pegna. Edited by Hans Busemann. For inquiries, please contact our editorial team at berlin.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for politics and economy) or frankfurt.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for companies and markets).)
- by Daniela Pegna
