Deutsche Börse News: 'A Dampener on the AI Rally'

FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG) - Following the setback in US technology stocks, the focus this week shifts to the sustainability of the AI bull market. With SpaceX set for its market debut, an IPO is on the horizon that will also be relevant for index funds and existing heavyweights.

June 8, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Equity markets are starting the new week in the red. After US indices lost significant value on Friday, the DAX (DE0008469008) is seen at 24,450 points this morning. The German benchmark index ended last week at 24,759 points after a 1.4 percent decline. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) shed 0.5 percent to 622.66 points. In the US, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 recorded weekly declines of 2.6 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

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The market is now debating whether the setback in the technology sector was merely a brief interruption of the AI-driven rally or the start of a more pronounced correction. A weighing factor was the disappointingly received revenue forecast from chipmaker Broadcom last Wednesday. Previously, US indices had still been marking new all-time highs. Robert Rethfeld of Wellenreiter-Invest calls Friday a 'liquidation day across all asset classes', as bonds, equities, cryptos, and commodities all fell. However, the expert does not see this behavior as a new trend, but rather a 'very short-term phenomenon'.

'Significantly increased capital requirements in the short term'

Rethfeld attributes the sell-off to the extremely optimistic positioning of global fund managers with high overweighting in equities and commodities, as well as a 'temporarily high capital requirement among investors'. 'When there is a capital requirement of up to 250 billion dollars within a few trading days, the need for liquidation of existing positions is significantly increased', he explains, pointing to the SpaceX IPO, Alphabet's 'mammoth capital increase' of nearly 85 billion dollars, and the capital requirement announced by Meta, which according to his calculations 'could be of a similar dimension to Alphabet's'.

Meanwhile, Berndt Fernow of LBBW describes a market in which the AI boom has reached ever wider circles. Following Nvidia, demand first spread to chip manufacturers and equipment suppliers, then later to memory manufacturers, power semiconductors, networking technology, server providers, power supply, and specialty chemicals. Against this backdrop, the analyst warns that the rise in index levels is only half the story. The majority of individual stocks have performed more weakly than the major equity indices.

The implications of the SpaceX IPO

The SpaceX IPO, scheduled for next Friday, could become a major stress test for equity markets. Clemens Freigang of LBBW speaks of a record IPO and cites an expected issuance volume of 74.4 billion US dollars. Based on the set issue price of 135 dollars, the valuation of the aerospace company stands at 1.77 trillion dollars. This would see the company replace Saudi Aramco as the largest IPO to date.

The IPO is relevant for equity markets not only because of the size of the issuance. Analysts at DZ Bank point out that newcomers can trigger purchases by index funds following index inclusion. MSCI can include large IPOs after just ten trading days, while the S&P 500 adheres to a twelve-month period. With a low free float, additional demand meets limited supply. At the same time, index funds would have to sell other stocks to finance the new positions. DZ Bank therefore anticipates increased volatility around such inclusion dates.

Jens Ehrhardt of Finanzwoche also classifies the upcoming new issues as a potential weighing factor. In addition to SpaceX, he mentions AI giants Anthropic and OpenAI. The ratio of stock supply to stock demand is deteriorating, though Ehrhardt speaks of a rebalancing rather than an oversupply.

Geopolitics and interest rate decision

Against this background, the Iran conflict could briefly fade into the background on the markets, provided there is no relevant news. Furthermore, focus is likely to be on the ECB meeting on Thursday. Analysts and economists consider a 25-basis-point rate hike to be almost a foregone conclusion.

Technical picture shows further correction risks

From a technical analysis perspective, the outlook has dimmed due to the sharp price decline at the end of the week. 'A new market phase begins with Friday', explains Marcel Mussler regarding the major US indices. The technical analyst speaks of an impending 'consolidation period'. A major crash is not expected, but neither is a rapid revival of the upward rally. For the DAX, it is important in the current environment to defend the uptrend, which currently runs at 24,570 points. Should it fail to do so, the index possesses 'provocatively easy further correction potential'. According to Mussler, the next support zone would only be found at the two levels of 23,715 and 23,797 points.

Key economic and financial dates of the week

Monday, June 8

08:00. Germany: Industrial incoming orders. Following the significant plus in March, the April data should show whether the increase was primarily due to special effects. Helaba expects a month-on-month decline of 1.0 percent, while LBBW even anticipates a drop of 3.5 percent.

Tuesday, June 9

08:00. Germany: Industrial production. Like March, April is likely to have been a difficult month for industry. Deka points out that German industrial production has fallen three times since December. Helaba expects a month-on-month decline of 0.5 percent, while Nord/LB expects a plus of 1.5 percent.

14:30. USA: Trade balance. The deficit is likely to have remained high in April. Helaba expects a deficit of 55.0 billion US dollars; the consensus is 55.5 billion US dollars following 60.3 billion US dollars in March.

16:00. USA: Existing home sales. The US real estate market remains a gauge for the impact of high financing costs. The consensus expects an annualized sales figure of 4.08 million homes, following 4.02 million in April.

Wednesday, June 10

14:30. USA: Inflation data. Consumer prices are likely to have risen significantly again in May. For headline inflation, the consensus is 0.5 percent month-on-month, following 0.6 percent in April. The core rate, excluding energy and food, is seen at 0.3 percent. Deka points to possible price increases in goods outside of energy and food, including used cars.

Thursday, June 11

14:15. Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision. A 25-basis-point hike in key interest rates is considered likely. For the deposit rate, the consensus is 2.25 percent after 2.00 percent; for the main refinancing rate, 2.40 percent after 2.15 percent. Economists at Deka assume that the ECB will initially continue to decide 'from meeting to meeting' due to high uncertainty.

Friday, June 12

16:00. USA: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. US consumer sentiment is likely to have improved in June. The consensus is 46.0 points after 44.8 points in May. Deutsche Bank even expects 48.5 points and additionally points to the importance of inflation expectations in the survey.

USA: Expected market debut of SpaceX. The initial listing of the aerospace company on the Nasdaq is planned for the last day of this week. Analysts point to a possible valuation of 1.77 trillion US dollars. This would make it the largest IPO in history.

By Thomas Koch, June 8, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG

(Deutsche Börse AG is solely responsible for the content of this column. The articles do not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)