FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE-BOERSE AG) - From a behavioral finance perspective, the recent period of unusually quiet trading days coupled with significant gains in the US does not bode well.
April 16, 2026. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). Although the weekend was largely met with global disappointment as negotiations between the US and Iran failed to yield tangible results, market participants appear to have found renewed hope that the war could soon be over. At the very least, major US equity indices erased the losses incurred since the start of the Iran war a week ago and are now on the verge of new record highs. Domestically, the DAX only had to endure a temporary loss of 1.6 percent over the weekend, which was also quickly recovered, though it resulted in only a modest gain of 0.2 percent compared to the previous sentiment survey.
However, the reality is that the DAX, unlike the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, is by no means flirting with new record highs. The fact that the local benchmark remains so far from such levels may be attributed to the behavior of international fund managers. According to the Bank of America April survey published yesterday, these managers have significantly scaled back their investments in Eurozone equities. Only a net 4 percent reported being overweight in the region - down from a balance of 21 percent in March.
Institutional "forced optimism" persists
Meanwhile, the sentiment among the institutional investors we surveyed, who maintain a medium-term trading horizon, has remained quite stable for several weeks, and today's survey has done little to change that. Our Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index fell by only 6 points from the previous week to a new level of +24. There was some position trimming among bulls to the tune of 4 percentage points; half of this migration went directly into the bear camp, while the other half joined the ranks of neutral players.
The shift in sentiment among private investors was far more pronounced. The Deutsche Börse Sentiment Index for this panel rose by a full 19 points to a new level of +22. In contrast to institutional investors, the bear camp decreased by 13 percentage points. Approximately half of these former pessimists joined the optimists directly, effectively performing a 180-degree turn in their exposure; the other half moved to a neutral stance. It was again evident that investors surveyed via social media proved particularly optimistic, while other private investors were somewhat more cautious, though their sub-sentiment index of +11 was significantly more bullish than a week ago.
Private investors: Positive by conviction
With today's survey, the previously wide sentiment gap between private and institutional investors has almost completely closed. The diverging sentiment movements between these two panels are likely rooted in the entry prices of their respective underlying positions. For private investors, switching sides was presumably quite easy, partly due to small profits on short positions. Among institutional investors, a majority of 51 percent of all respondents still hopes for further price increases - a majority that has remained largely stable since mid-February.
Should the DAX continue to move upward, significant supply is likely to emerge from these sources, especially as these are positions that would finally see "land" again in terms of entry prices. However, the appetite for the DAX among long-term international investors (see the Bank of America survey above) is likely to remain limited. Consequently, the downside will have to be defended by domestic investors compared to last week - a task that is far from simple.
by Joachim Goldberg
April 16, 2026, © Goldberg & Goldberg for Deutsche Börse
(Deutsche Börse AG is solely responsible for the content of this column. The articles do not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)
