FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE-BOERSE AG) - The rapid surge in oil and gas prices is causing stocks to buckle further, as the impact on inflation and the economy becomes increasingly likely. Everything now hinges on the duration of the Iran war.
March 9, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). With no quick end to the Iran war in sight, oil and gas prices continue to climb, weighing heavily on equity markets. "The war in the Middle East is likely to remain the dominant theme this week," explains Commerzbank analyst Alexander Krämer. The decisive factor is how long the Strait of Hormuz remains de facto impassable and how higher energy prices will affect inflation and economic growth. "It will likely remain volatile," he says.
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"Last week was already characterized by the Middle East war and, consequently, by high energy prices and the accompanying risk aversion," notes Ralf Umlauf of Helaba. This morning, the issue is even more prominent due to the spike in oil prices. The fate of stock prices depends on when and to what extent oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf can resume. "The longer the high-price phase lasts, the greater the damage to global economic prospects."
Brent price exceeds 100 US Dollars
The price of a barrel of Brent recently rose above 100 US dollars, its highest level since the 2022 energy crisis. Asian markets slumped this morning. The DAX (DE0008469008) stands at 23,013 points on Monday morning, down from 23,642 at Friday's close. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) has slipped below 600 points. US markets also closed with significant losses on Friday. Gold (XC0009655157) continues to move sideways, with the price currently at 5,096 US dollars.
"Recovery in Germany at risk"
"The cautiously optimistic outlook for German industry has become more uncertain again," remarks Carsten Brzeski of ING. The war in the Middle East and, above all, the rise in oil prices could significantly impair an industrial recovery. "Even if we are not (yet) in 2022, the rise in energy prices - if it persists - is a clear obstacle for German industry." After all, energy-intensive industries account for about 17 percent of industrial gross value added and employ nearly one million people.
And now, Black Monday?
Christian Henke of IG even fears a "Black Monday." "One week after the first airstrike on Iran, the situation on international oil markets is coming to a dramatic head," he explains. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly noticeable, and some Gulf states have scaled back their oil production. "The 2022 oil price high of 126.34 US dollars for WTI oil is drawing closer." Equity markets could also face a rough ride today. "For the German benchmark index, the lower end of the trading range at 23,021 points could be targeted by bears." The next support level is the former upward gap at 22,607/22,764 points from early May 2025.
"Short-term fluctuations, long-term constructive"
According to Weber Bank, however, the fundamental framework for equities remains solid. "In the US, the reporting season for the fourth quarter of 2025 was very positive. In Europe, corporate earnings were also solid overall, albeit with less momentum," explains Marthel Edouard. For the current year, the consensus expects global corporate earnings to continue rising. However, investor expectations are now very high. "In the short term, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, interest rate expectations, and sometimes ambitious valuations is likely to cause further fluctuations," says Edouard. However, he does not believe the Middle East conflict will lead to a sustained impairment of the global economy and equity markets. In the medium term, the bank remains constructive on equity markets. "Broad diversification and a focus on high-quality companies with solid balance sheets and stable business models remain crucial."
Key Economic Data
Monday, March 9
Germany: IPO Gabler. Submarine equipment supplier Gabler Group (DE000A421RZ9) goes public.
8:00 AM. Germany: Industrial Production, January.
Tuesday, March 10
8:00 AM. Germany: Exports, January. Helaba forecasts a decline of 1.5 percent following a 4 percent increase in the previous month.
Wednesday, March 11
1:30 PM. USA: Consumer Prices, February. In the US, goods prices rose relatively sharply in December and January compared to the previous month, as DekaBank notes. Tariff effects likely played a major role. The bank assumes that tariff effects will now recede and expects unremarkable price increases for consumer prices in February.
Friday, March 13
11:00 AM. Eurozone: Industrial Production, January. The market expects an increase of 0.5 percent compared to December, following a 1.4 percent decline in the previous month.
1:30 PM. USA: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index excluding food and energy, January. According to Commerzbank, the core PCE rate for January, which has not yet been published, is likely to be at least 3.1 percent - significantly above the consumer price trend.
By Anna-Maria Borse, March 9, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG
(Deutsche Börse AG is solely responsible for the content of this column. The articles do not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)
