FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE-BOERSE AG) - A gain of around 3 percent in the first trading week – that was a strong start to the new year. Optimism prevails for the coming months as well, despite the latest developments in Venezuela and Iran.
January 12, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). The new year is shaping up like the old: markets are on the rise. "Capital markets started 2026 with impressive momentum," notes Commerzbank analyst Pascal Reichert. The arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro by the USA left both oil prices and global stock and bond markets "completely unfazed."
The Greenland issue and unrest in Iran are also having no impact. On Monday morning, the DAX (DE0008469008) stood at 25,230 points after reaching a new record high of 25,281 on Friday and closing the week at 25,262. The Stoxx Europe (EU0009658202) is also at record levels. US markets also gained on Friday.
Gold continues to make headlines: its price hit a new record high overnight into Monday. One reason: mounting concerns about the independence of the US Federal Reserve. "As announced on Sunday, the US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation against Fed Chair Jerome Powell," explains Sandro Pannagl of LBBW. Officially, the agency cited irregularities in construction work at the Fed headquarters as the reason. However, Powell has unusually strongly disputed this account.
High Consensus: Much Optimism for 2026
Commerzbank is cautiously optimistic for the rest of the year in equities. "Further interest rate cuts in the US and a strengthening economy in Germany should continue to drive equity markets," says Pascal Reichert. According to Martin Zurek of Weber Bank, the high consensus among forecasts points to positive market sentiment but, given already ambitious valuations, also increases vulnerability to disappointment. "Solid, double-digit earnings growth is still expected in major markets, but even moderate deviations could have a noticeable impact on capital markets."
Helaba: Only Sideways Movement
Markus Reinwand of Helaba is more skeptical: while the start of the year is often seen as an indicator for the whole year, such conclusions should be drawn with caution. Most of the gains have been bought by expanding valuations. As a result, many indices have reached valuation levels outside their historical norms. "Most indices are now expensive. Future price increases will need to be underpinned by corresponding improvements in earnings prospects." The bank expects only sideways movement for 2026.
"Still More Potential Now"
From a technical perspective, Christoph Geyer believes there is "still more potential." While indicators are in overbought territory and trading volumes have only slightly increased, "A pull-back to the breakout zone would be usual and classic. However, the breakout has significantly changed and improved the situation," explains the technical analyst. Caution is advised if the old resistance zone is breached again. "Currently, there is no sign of this, but such a scenario should be watched for and responded to immediately if it occurs."
A highlight this week: On Tuesday, the US earnings season kicks off with figures from JPMorgan, followed later in the week by Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley. "The earnings season is likely to be decisive for the development of equity markets in the first quarter," says Deka chief economist Ulrich Kater. He expects earnings growth significantly above the current analyst forecasts of 6.4 percent.
Key Economic and Business Data
Tuesday, January 13
2:30 p.m. USA: December Consumer Prices. Tariff-related price effects were surprisingly mild in 2025, according to DekaBank. Some of these costs will still be passed on to end consumers, but overall, US consumer prices in December are not expected to have risen noticeably from the previous month.
Wednesday, January 14
2:30 p.m. USA: November Retail Sales. Helaba expects an increase of 0.5 percent compared to the previous month.
Thursday, January 15
10:00 a.m. Germany: 2025 GDP, first estimate. After two years of contraction, the "German misery" continued in 2025, according to DekaBank, with a gain of only 0.1 percent.
11:00 a.m. Eurozone: November Industrial Production. The market expects stagnation compared to the previous month.
By Anna-Maria Borse, January 12, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG
(Deutsche Börse AG is solely responsible for the content of this column. The articles do not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)
