FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE-BOERSE AG) - Following a strong start to the week, the DAX is once again approaching its record high. Whether it can break through will likely depend on the interplay between oil prices, yields, and interest rate expectations. Technical analysts are already expressing significant confidence.

May 26, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Hopes for an imminent peace agreement between the US and Iran buoyed markets at the start of the new week. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) rose by 1.0 percent to around 632 points, while the DAX (DE0008469008) surged by 2.0 percent to 25,389 points. After both indices posted significant gains last week (3.0 and 3.9 percent respectively), they are now on the verge of all-time highs. This morning, however, slight setbacks are looming following renewed hostilities in the Middle East and US President Donald Trump's emphasis that he is in 'no hurry' regarding negotiations. Asian equity markets recorded mostly moderate losses this morning, following a trading holiday there yesterday (as in the US).

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Oil prices 'here today, gone tomorrow'

Markus Reinwand of Helaba describes the situation on the financial markets as a movement 'between hope and fear'. As soon as there is a prospect of de-escalation in the Iran conflict, oil prices retreat, as do bond yields. Equities, gold, and the euro then gain ground. The pattern reverses when oil prices rise due to a lack of negotiating prospects.

Strategists at NordLB describe the development in the volatile crude oil market as 'unpredictable'. The price for a barrel of Brent fell below 96 dollars yesterday, reaching its lowest level in a month. This morning it stands at 98 dollars.

Berndt Fernow of LBBW points out that markets apparently no longer believe in a renewed escalation of hostilities in the Persian Gulf. However, this also limits the potential for upside surprises. Even a constructive solution could quickly give way to a more sober assessment of the resulting economic damage.

Markus Reinwand

Markus Reinwand

Yields as a major risk factor

Alongside the geopolitical situation, the rise in yields remains a central theme. From LBBW's perspective, the crisis in the Persian Gulf continues to permeate economies via energy prices, intermediate products, and transport costs. Uwe Streich sees this as a reason why central banks are likely to remain restrictive. In this context, he describes the cost of capital as the 'Achilles' heel of the AI boom', which is considered the engine of the ongoing equity market rally. The construction of ever-larger data centers requires high investment and increasingly capital market financing. Rising interest rates raise the break-even point for operators and alter investors' valuation models. This particularly affects companies whose expected earnings lie far in the future.

DAX corporations with solid balance sheets

In contrast, the domestic reporting season turned out less weak than feared, according to LBBW. Fernow points out that positive and negative outlooks from DAX companies were roughly balanced. The quarterly figures only partially reflected the new problems. He views statements from Infineon, the chemical industry, several automakers, and the capital goods sector as positive. Fernow sees this as an indication of a certain resilience among DAX corporations. In the previous reporting season, there had been a higher number of negative outlooks.

Technical picture proves convincing

From a charting perspective, the all-time high of 25,507 points for the DAX is 'within reach' this week, as Marcel Mußler of Mußler Briefen wrote yesterday at noon. Beyond that, his analysis suggests 'entirely new medium-term perspectives' if US markets also 'break out to the upside'. The technical analyst points to a new upward trend channel, currently at 26,430 points and rising further in perspective. Ralf Umlauf of Helaba is also optimistic for the DAX: 'Indicators do not oppose further price gains; the all-time high is within range.' Mußler also highlights the small-cap index SDAX (DE0009653386), which has already marked new record highs. The price barometer is confirming itself as a 'frontrunner in the DAX family, whetting the appetite for more'.

Key economic and financial dates of the week

Tuesday, May 26

4:00 PM. USA: Consumer Confidence. Deutsche Bank expects a decline from 92.8 to 91.9 points. Commerzbank anticipates 91.5 points, LBBW around 90 points. LBBW cites higher energy prices and uncertainty related to the Iran conflict as weighing factors.

Thursday, May 28

11:00 AM. Eurozone: Economic Sentiment. LBBW expects a slight decline in economic confidence, citing rising financing costs, a subdued industrial climate, and a hesitant recovery in the services sector. Deka sees sentiment burdened by high energy prices,

supply chain problems, and uncertainty.

2:30 PM. USA: Durable Goods Orders. The consensus is for a 2.5 percent increase month-on-month. Deutsche Bank is significantly more cautious at 0.1 percent, while LBBW and Deka expect 3.0 percent. Deka notes that civil aircraft manufacturing should provide support.

2:30 PM. USA: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank expect a 0.3 percent month-on-month increase for the core rate (excluding food and energy). Commerzbank points out that this would correspond to an annual rate of 3.3 percent, clearly above the US Federal Reserve's two-percent target; Deka speaks of a fifth consecutive undesirably high price increase.

5:30 PM. Eurozone: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. LBBW expects hints regarding the future course of monetary policy in the Eurozone. Markets are likely to watch primarily for signals on possible rate cuts or a prolonged pause.

Friday, May 29

2:00 PM. Germany: Inflation Data. Commerzbank and LBBW expect the annual rate of the national consumer price index to fall to 2.7 percent, Deutsche Bank to 2.82 percent, while Deka expects it to remain unchanged at 2.9 percent. Most economists point to dampening effects from lower energy prices and the fuel discount.

By Thomas Koch, May 26, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG

(Deutsche Börse AG is solely responsible for the content of this column. The articles do not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)