Jefferies notes in today's report that first-quarter operating revenue rose 3% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis (-7% quarter-on-quarter at constant scope) to reach 673 million euros. This figure stands 2% above the group's guidance, likely due to a less unfavorable regulatory impact, and slightly exceeds Jefferies' own forecasts.
"Excluding the impact of Italian (22 million euros) and Brazilian (13 million euros) regulations, organic operating growth would have reached 8.2%".
According to the analyst, this growth is driven by the performance of the Mobility division (+10% LFL), while the B&E business remained flat. However, adjusted for the 35 million euro regulatory impact (BR+IT), B&E grew by 8%. Meanwhile, the PS&NM division posted a 6% increase.
The research firm highlights that the 2026 LFL EBITDA decline forecasts, ranging between 8% and 12%, have been confirmed.
"Given the worsening headwinds in Brazil throughout the year, we do not anticipate any significant upward revision to the consensus," Jefferies states.
According to Oddo BHF, this release is broadly reassuring regarding underlying trends, and the confirmation of the outlook should not lead to any material consensus adjustments. "Edenred's long-term growth potential remains solid, supported by low penetration in its markets."
Oddo BHF also believes that the ability to adapt to ongoing regulatory changes will be critical in the coming months.
"Regulatory risk remains the primary threat to its business. Our fundamentally positive stance is based on: 1) strong growth prospects; 2) significant remaining potential for margin improvement; and 3) robust free cash flow generation," the firm notes.
"Edenred's valuation at 10.3x 2026e P/E suggests a 60% discount compared to its average 12-month forward multiple over the past nine years," Oddo BHF concludes.
Edenred SE is a leading digital services and payments platform and the everyday companion for people at work, connecting over 60 million employees and more than 2 million partner merchants in 44 countries via nearly 1 million corporate clients.
Edenred SE offers specific-purpose payment solutions for food (meal benefits), incentives (gift cards, employee engagement platforms), mobility (multi-energy, maintenance, toll, parking and commuter solutions) and corporate payments (virtual cards). These solutions enhance employee well-being and purchasing power, improve companies' attractiveness and efficiency, and vitalize the employment market and the local economy.
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