Total fourth-quarter revenue rose 3% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis (+8% quarter-on-quarter compared to forecasts) to €784 million, beating expectations by 1%.

Operating revenue, meanwhile, increased by 2.7%, falling short of forecasts (+3.2%)/Jefferies (+1.4%).

Jefferies notes in today's report that excluding exceptional Italian items, like-for-like operating market capitalization grew by around 200 basis points quarter-on-quarter to reach 10%.

"Second-half EBITDA climbed 8% like-for-like to €706 million, 42% above expectations, and is expected to end 2025 more than 1.5% above forecasts (over €1.34 billion)," the research firm highlights.

The 2026 outlook, which projects a like-for-like EBITDA decline of 8 to 12% (forecast: -10%), was confirmed, despite the suspension of the Brazilian decree.

Oddo BHF also notes that the group is maintaining its guidance for the 2026 fiscal year, which factors in the impact of Italian and Brazilian regulations (with the Brazilian update expected in mid-February). The group also reaffirmed its 2027-2028 targets, namely organic EBITDA growth of 8 to 12% and a free cash flow conversion rate of at least 65%.

"Given the maintained 2026 outlook, we do not anticipate significant consensus adjustments on EBITDA, but rather downward revisions on free cash flow," Oddo BHF states.

Oddo BHF believes Edenred's long-term growth potential remains robust, supported by the under-penetration of its markets. "However, regulatory risk is the main threat to its business. Our fundamentally positive stance is based on: 1) strong growth prospects; 2) significant margin improvement potential; and 3) solid free cash flow generation," the analyst concludes.