EMEA Morning Briefing : Futures Fall as Markets Weigh Fresh Tariff Uncertainty

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Germany ifo business climate index; trading update for Sasol

Opening Call:

European stock futures were lower early Monday. Asian stock benchmarks broadly gained; the dollar fell; gold rose and oil fell.

Equities:

Equity futures fell as investors grappled with the implications of Friday's Supreme Court ruling that overturned most of President Trump's tariffs. Fresh questions hang over the U.S. economy following a new, temporary global tariff in place.

The 15% global tariffs under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act are allowed to be in effect for 150 days.

"Beyond which, markets are confronted with extended trade/tariff uncertainty, not relief," said Mizuho Securities (Singapore)'s Vishnu Varathan. "U.S. trade antagonism threats are not neutralized and deals may be changed unilaterally by the U.S.," he said.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar weakened as markets contemplated a new tariffs regime.

U.S. trade policy uncertainty could persist through 2026, said MUFG Bank's Michael Wan. While there are alternative trade authorities that the Trump administration can and will likely depend on to replicate the tariffs, they are more constrained and cumbersome than using Ieepa, Wan said.

U.S. trade policy uncertainty is "one additional factor why our global team remains negative on the dollar through this year," Wan added.

Bonds:

Trading of Treasuries in Asia was closed due to a holiday in Japan on Monday.

Minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed broad agreement around holding the federal-funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for some time. But several participants noted that they would have preferred language that kept rate hikes explicitly in play, should inflation remain above target.

"This sets up an interesting dynamic," said EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco. "While Warsh may enter with a perceived dovish bias, he will first need to demonstrate that his views are anchored in economic fundamentals rather than politics. He would then need to persuade a committee that appears increasingly hawkish and comfortable with policy near neutral."

Energy:

Oil fell as Trump weighed an initial limited military strike on Iran to compel the country to meet his demands for a nuclear deal.

The opening assault, which if authorized could come within days, would target a few military or government sites, the WSJ reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

"Global [oil] supply remains adequate, and a limited disruption could likely be absorbed," said Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen.

Metals:

Gold and silver rose after Trump announced a 15% global tariff that will replace many of the duties ruled illegal by the Supreme Court.

Trade tensions have renewed following Trump's latest moves, which are likely to spur haven-buying that supports gold and silver, said ANZ.

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Nickel gained as the market is mulling the Indonesian government's decision to restrict nickel supply, said ANZ.

Indonesian officials said production at Weda Bay will be capped at 12 megatons of nickel ore in 2026, from 42 megatons in 2025, the analysts noted. Quotas across the rest of the country's mining industry will also be reduced, ANZ added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

The Fundraising Tactic AI Startups Are Using to Juice Valuations

AI startup Serval closed a private deal with venture-capital giant Sequoia in December that valued it at less than $400 million. Days later, Serval announced a new milestone from another funding round.

This time, its valuation had topped $1 billion, giving it Silicon Valley's coveted "unicorn" status.

Tariffs Are a Wild Card for the Economy Again

Before Friday, President Trump's tariffs, after months of on-again, off-again turbulence, had seemed to finally steady. Now, with the bulk of Trump's tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, and a new, temporary global tariff in place, fresh questions hang over the U.S. economy.

Will Trump's new 15% tariff meaningfully change trade flows and business operations?

Wall Street's Latest Bet Is on 'HALO' Companies With AI Immunity

After a three-year love affair with anything related to artificial intelligence, U.S. investors are flocking to the factory owners, fast-food restaurants and commodity companies that have seemingly strong odds of surviving the technological revolution intact.

Call it the AI immunity trade, HALO-for "heavy assets, low obsolescence"-or just another iteration of the jitters that have periodically rippled through markets since the AI investing boom began. The winners include McDonald's, Exxon Mobil and tractor maker Deere. Left behind are the perceived potential victims of the AI revolution, a list that has ranged from wealth managers to software firms.

Christine Lagarde Isn't Done Trying to Fix Europe

Christine Lagarde was seated among prime ministers, presidents and European royalty in Davos, Switzerland, last month when Howard Lutnick took the mic. The U.S. Commerce Secretary launched into an attack on Europe, railing against the continent's energy policies and declining place on the world stage.

Lagarde had heard enough. The president of the European Central Bank stood up and left the opening dinner of the annual World Economic Forum. Others followed.

Tariff Ruling Brings Little Comfort Overseas

The Supreme Court's decision overturning President Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on imports isn't the game-changer for international trade that it might appear to be at first.

In Asia, Europe and the Americas, governments don't expect Trump to abandon his favorite tool of economic policy, despite the legal setback. Trump has said tariffs are essential for reviving U.S. manufacturing and raising revenue.

Nvidia Wants to Be the Brain of Consumer PCs Once Again

Nvidia chips for laptop computers are set to hit the market this year in products from Dell, Lenovo and others, a return to the consumer PC market for the leader in artificial-intelligence chips.

The world's most valuable company by market capitalization, Nvidia isn't expecting big profit soon from getting its chips into everyday PCs, but analysts said it wanted to keep a connection with consumers in an era when every device will be AI-enabled.

Trump Demands Netflix Oust Susan Rice From Board

President Trump demanded that Netflix kick former national security adviser Susan Rice off its board, adding another political headache to the streaming company's pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery's key entertainment assets.

"Netflix should fire racist, Trump Deranged Susan Rice, IMMEDIATELY, or pay the consequences," Trump said in a post Saturday evening on his Truth Social platform, calling the former Obama and Biden top aide a "political hack."

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Expected Major Events for Monday

05:30/NED: Jan House Price Index

07:30/SWI: Jan Import Price Index

07:30/SWI: Jan PPI

09:00/ITA: Jan CPI

09:00/POL: Jan Retail Sales

09:00/GER: Feb ifo Business Climate Index

11:00/IRL: Jan WPI

13:00/POL: Jan Broad money M3

14:00/BEL: Feb Business Confidence Survey

17:59/POR: Dec ICSG Copper Report

17:59/UK: Jan Adzuna UK Job Market Report

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-23-26 0019ET