EMEA Morning Briefing : Silver Hits the Brakes in Year-End Rally

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

No major economic or corporate trading updates expected

Opening Call:

European stock futures were higher after Asia stocks traded mixed. The dollar edged lower and the yield on U.S. Treasurys was flat. Gold rose and oil was flat.

Equities:

European equity futures were higher as silver's furious rally turned around with the precious metal's biggest one-day fall in more than four years.

Gold and silver futures both slid after exchange operator CME Group increased margin requirements for the two metals along with platinum and palladium futures in response to recent volatility. Silver's move was particularly sharp-it dropped 8.7% in the metal's biggest one-day decline since February 2021.

On Wall Street, big technology stocks led declines, led by Oracle, Nvidia and Tesla. There are limited corporate reports or economic data scheduled this week.

Investors will view minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting on Tuesday for insight into policymakers' disagreements and how those may affect rates next year.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar continues to face a challenging backdrop in 2026 following this year's sharp depreciation, said Charles Stanley's Abbas Owainati.

The dollar's fall this year reflects concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability, an erosion of the currency's safe haven status amid unpredictable policy, increased currency hedging by non-U.S. investors and changes in capital flows.

The dollar could stay under pressure next year as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates further, he said. A weaker dollar could support emerging markets equities by easing external debt burdens, improving capital flows and boosting local currency returns, he added.

Bonds:

U.S. Treasury yields were flat after declines overnight ahead of Fed minutes and following indications of strength in the U.S. housing market and weakness in manufacturing.

Following their decision cut its benchmark interest rate earlier this month, Fed officials made clear they are planning to pause cuts, and the minutes of their discussions could help investors gauge how long the central bank's hibernation will last.

"I think they're going to be in a period of extended pause. I mean, they cut 75 basis points this year in a period where we've really seen no improvement on inflation," said Claudia Sahm, a former top Fed staffer and now the chief economist at New Century Advisors.

The Fed will release the minutes of the meeting on Tuesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

Energy:

Crude oil futures were flat as prices fluctuated at low levels, driven by the interplay between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, Nanhua Futures analysts said in a note.

Demand remained relatively steady, they said, with investors closely watching tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela after Trump said that the U.S. recently carried out an attack on a dock area in Venezuela.

Metals:

Gold and silver futures were in focus after exchange operator CME Group increased margin requirements to ensure metals traders put down more cash on their bets.

Silver's comedown was its biggest percentage drop in a session since February 2021. Back then, a similar move by CME helped cool some of the speculative mania around silver futures, GameStop shares and more that was linked to the online forum WallStreetBets.

Monday's violent move sparked speculation that silver's record-breaking run in 2025-its greatest yearly percentage gain since the inflationary shock of 1979-could be near its end.

"A cycle top in silver could likely pull the entire [metals] complex lower given it could deflate the speculative fervor from retail traders, " TD Securities strategist Daniel Ghali wrote in a note.

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Copper was higher after giving up some gains overnight.

Prices have been surging in recent months amid expectations of supply risks.

Short-term corrections do not alter the long-term upward trend, and investors can take a wait-and-see approach ahead of the new year holidays, said Nanhua Futures analysts.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Silver Posts Biggest One-Day Decline in Nearly Five Years

Wild trading in metals markets Monday hit the brakes on a torrid year-end rally, sending silver futures to their steepest one-day decline in almost five years.

Investors dumped commodities key to everything from central-bank reserves to the historic infrastructure build-out linked to the AI boom. The selloff in copper and precious-metals futures dragged down shares in Arizona mining firms, the world's largest gold producer and a silver company with assets stretching from Alaska to Quebec.

Trump eyes January for announcement of Powell replacement as he renews attacks on Fed chief

President Donald Trump on Monday said he's looking at next month for the announcement of a candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and revived a threat to sue over renovations at the central bank's headquarters.

"January, sometime," Trump said in response to a question about timing for his pick for a new leader of the Fed. The president and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were meeting at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, and the remarks came at a news conference.

Citigroup to Sell Remaining Business Operating in Russia

Citigroup said its board approved a plan to sell AO Citibank, which conducts the company's remaining business in Russia, to Renaissance Capital.

Citigroup said its remaining business in Russia will be reported as "held for sale," as of the fourth quarter of this year. The deal is expected to sign and close in the first half of next year, the company added.

Meta Buys AI Startup Manus, Adding Millions of Paying Users

Meta Platforms has agreed to acquire AI startup Manus, a Singapore-based company with Chinese founders that conducts deep research and performs other tasks for paying users.

Meta is closing the deal at more than $2 billion, according to people familiar with the acquisition. Manus was seeking a fresh round of fundraising with a valuation of $2 billion when Meta approached the startup, some of the people said.

Chinese Technology Firms Aim to Raise Over $1 Billion via IPOs

Hong Kong's initial-public-offering market is set to start the new year with a bang, as three Chinese technology companies line up to raise more than US$1 billion ahead of planned listings in the city early January.

A chip provider, a large artificial-intelligence-model developer and a surgical robot company aim to raise a total of 9.22 billion Hong Kong dollars via IPOs, equivalent to US$1.19 billion, according to fillings to Hong Kong's exchange operator on Tuesday.

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Expected Major Events for Tuesday

05:30/NED: Nov PPI

08:00/SPN: Nov Retail Sales

08:00/SPN: Dec Flash Estimate CPI

08:00/SVK: Dec Business tendency survey

08:00/SVK: Dec Economic sentiment indicator

08:00/SWI: Dec KOF economic barometer

09:00/BUL: Nov PPI

10:00/CYP: Oct Industrial Production Index

10:00/GRE: Nov PPI

10:00/CRO: Nov Retail trade

11:00/POR: Nov Retail trade

13:00/POL: 3Q Quarterly Balance of Payments

16:59/SPN: Oct Monthly Balance of Payments

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-30-25 0015ET