Equities sell off as ECB repricing pushes MIB to 47,500

(Alliance News) - Global financial markets closed Monday's session in negative territory amid a marked deterioration in risk sentiment, triggered by a fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.

News of a potential blockade of access to the Strait of Hormuz by Washington, following the failure of weekend talks, sparked an immediate repricing of risk assets. Market participants are increasingly factoring in a more protracted conflict scenario with significant implications for global energy dynamics.

In Piazza Affari, the MIB finished around the 47,500 level, tracking the weakness seen across other continental indices. The benchmark was weighed down by the energy shock and a simultaneous hardening of monetary policy expectations. The upward move in crude oil served as the primary market driver, with Brent climbing above the USD 100 per barrel threshold, fueling fears of a renewed inflationary spike.

The rally in energy commodities is driving a significant adjustment in yield curves, as the market has rapidly revised upward its expectations for tightening by major central banks.

In the Eurozone, traders are now pricing in nearly three additional rate hikes by the ECB by year-end, compared to the two estimated just last week, reflecting growing concern over the inflationary impact of the energy shock.

A similar dynamic is unfolding in the UK, where the repricing is equally evident. Trading floors are now discounting nearly two further hikes by the Bank of England by the end of 2026, up from just one expected a week ago.

Consequently, the FTSE Mib closed down 0.2% at 47,527.16, the Mid-Cap shed 0.3% to 56,046.13, the Small-Cap concluded 0.4% lower at 33,847.24, while Italy Growth retreated 0.3% to 8,654.65.

London's FTSE 100 slipped 0.2%, the CAC 40 in Paris gave up 0.4%, while Frankfurt's DAX 40 posted a 0.2% decline.

Returning to Milan's blue-chip index, Leonardo was among the few gainers, climbing 2.7% to EUR 57.80 after a 5.3% drop in the previous session.

Poste Italiane also showed strength, closing up 2.6% at EUR 22.13. Notably, BofA upgraded the stock to "buy" from "underperform" and raised its price target to EUR 28.80 from EUR 21.50.

Tenaris advanced 1.1% to EUR 25.73 per share, recovering from a 0.9% loss in the prior session.

Conversely, Enel shed 0.4% to EUR 9.82 per share. According to this week's report by Claudio Guerrini on Evaluation.it, Enel presents a lower-than-average risk profile, supported by a beta below 1 and the defensive nature of the sector, characterized by stable cash flows and high geographical diversification. Using discounted cash flow and Economic Value Added valuation models, the analyst sets a theoretical value for the stock at EUR 9.37 per share.

Brunello Cucinelli retreated 2.0% to EUR 82.14 per share. Berenberg maintained its "buy" recommendation and a target price of EUR 120.00, citing a first quarter that exceeded expectations and growth visibility that remains high over the medium term. Analysts Nick Anderson, Harrison Woodin-Lygo, and Vani Mohindra highlighted double-digit retail growth across all regions and a positioning that continues to stand out in the luxury sector.

On the mid-cap segment, GVS showed strength, surging over 10% following a 1.9% gain the previous day. The company announced on Monday its decision to launch a voluntary partial tender offer for up to 23.3 million treasury shares, representing approximately 12% of its share capital. The offer excludes 1.7 million treasury shares currently held by the company, which represent 0.9% of the share capital.

De' Longhi - up 1.0% - announced on Friday that a new share buyback program of approximately EUR 60 million will be launched starting April 13. The buyback will run for a maximum of six months.

Webuild closed the session down 5.1% at EUR 2.52 per share, reversing Friday evening's 3.5% gain. Of note, Mirabella Financial Services reduced its short position on the stock to 0.93% from 1.08%.

Selling pressure also hit Cementir Holding, which saw its price drop 3.2% after a 2.6% gain in the previous session.

Enav shed 2.0% to EUR 5.29 per share, following Friday's 1.3% decline.

On the Small-Cap index, Seco gained 5.5%. The company announced on Monday that it has extended its collaboration with Hitachi Energy.

Following an initial one-year phase focused on the development and integration of the Clea framework, Hitachi Energy signed a multi-year agreement with Seco to adopt the solution as a key element in the evolution of its Energy Connect platform, according to the company's statement.

Enervit rallied 4.6%, continuing its winning streak to finish around EUR 4.57 per share.

Gas Plus fell 2.5% to EUR 6.36 per share. Banca Akros maintained its view on the stock but raised the target price to EUR 8.00 from EUR 6.50 (dated August 2025), suggesting a 9.0% upside potential due to results slightly above estimates and a "significant improvement in the net financial position."

Trevi Finanziaria Industriale retreated 5.7% to EUR 0.2986 per share, marking its third consecutive bearish candle.

Among SMEs, Green Oleo closed 4.8% higher, following a 0.8% gain in the previous session.

Destination Italia - flat at EUR 0.28 - announced on Friday that it closed the first quarter of the year with consolidated sales revenues of EUR 21.9 million, up 1.6% compared to EUR 21.6 million in Q1 2025. The contribution margin reached EUR 2.9 million, a 16% increase from EUR 2.5 million in the first quarter of 2025.

Siav - up 2.5% - announced it has signed a binding agreement to acquire 9.1% of Atacod Srl through a total investment of EUR 1 million, based on a pre-money valuation of EUR 10 million. The transaction is part of the group's growth strategy and aims to expand its technological offering by integrating advanced expertise in business process automation via artificial intelligence.

Estrima shed 5.8% following Friday's 8.7% gain, finishing at EUR 0.1065 per share.

In New York, the Dow is down 0.5%, the Nasdaq is up 0.3%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.1%.

On the currency front, the euro is trading at USD 1.1706 from USD 1.1726 on Friday evening, while the pound is at USD 1.3454 from USD 1.3463.

Among commodities, Brent is trading at USD 101.37 per barrel from USD 96.85 on Friday evening, while gold is valued at USD 4,707.84 per ounce from USD 4,768.33.

Tuesday's macroeconomic calendar includes China's trade balance data at 0500 CEST, followed by Germany's wholesale price index at 0800 CEST.

At 1415 CEST, ADP employment data will be released, while at 1900 CEST, the Bundesbank's Balz and the Fed's Barkin and Collins are scheduled to speak.

On the corporate front, results are expected from Bastogi, Telesia, Triboo, and Vimi Fasteners.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

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