EU Plans to Curb Aluminum Scrap Exports Next Year -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 0.2% at $64.36 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 1.2% to 31.78 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Gold futures are down 0.9% to $4,040.00 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are up 0.8% at $10,766.5 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

EU Plans to Curb Aluminum Scrap Exports Next Year

The European Commission plans to restrict exports of aluminum scrap due to concerns that rising outflows of the resource could leave Europe short of a critical input for its decarbonization efforts.

"We are launching the preparatory work on a new measure to address the issue of aluminum scrap leakage," EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said at the European Aluminum Summit on Tuesday.

The aim isn't to fully block aluminum scrap exports but to adopt a "balanced" measure that ensures access to adequate supplies at competitive prices, while taking into account the interests of all stakeholders in the value chain--from producers and recyclers to the downstream sector, which turns the metal into finished products.

OTHER STORIES:

Rio Tinto to Cut Yarwun Alumina Output to Buy Time on Waste Plans

Rio Tinto plans to reduce production at its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia's Queensland state by 40% to give it more time to find a new long-term solution for the waste it produces there.

The miner will scale back output at the Yarwun refinery in Gladstone from October, cutting annual alumina output by around 1.2 million metric tons and eliminating roughly 180 jobs, it said Tuesday. The refinery currently employs around 725 staff and produces about 3 million tons of alumina annually, which is fed to Rio Tinto's aluminum smelters and sold to customers globally.

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BlueScope Expects 1H Earnings at Bottom End of Guidance

BlueScope Steel said it expects first-half earnings to be at the low end of earlier guidance, and that it is advancing work to lift earnings both in the near term and through to 2030.

The Australian steelmaker on Tuesday reiterated guidance provided in August for the six months to Dec. 31, but said that underlying earnings before interest and tax is expected to be at the bottom end of its 550 million to 620 million Australian dollar (US$357.1 million-US$402.6 million) forecast.

MARKET TALKS:

European Gas Price Rises, With Focus on Heating Demand -- Market Talk

1233 GMT - European natural-gas prices rise in afternoon trading as traders closely monitor weather patterns and heating demand ahead of the winter season. The Dutch TTF contract is up 1.4% to 31.85 euros a megawatt hour. "Some weather models point to milder conditions in December," analysts at ANZ Research say. "However, temperatures are set to drop this week, potentially forcing more drawdowns of inventories." According to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU storage levels are currently 81.9% full. ([e-mail])

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Palm-Oil Prices End Higher, Tracking Soybean Oil Strength -- Market Talk

1045 GMT - Palm-oil prices closed higher, tracking strength in the Chicago soybean-oil market after news of higher renewable-fuel-standards quotas lifted sentiment, David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X, says. Ng sees support for CPO futures at 4,150 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,280 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery closed 59 ringgit higher at 4,210 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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Base Metals Edge Lower Ahead of U.S. Economic Data -- Market Talk

0903 GMT - Base-metal prices drift lower amid diminishing prospects of a December interest-rate cut by the Fed and as investors await the release of delayed U.S. economic data. "Thursday's September nonfarm payrolls report is now centre stage," analysts at Sucden Financial say. "With the data calendar still distorted, investors are increasingly sensitive to labour-market signals as they reassess the near-term path of the Federal Reserve." According to the FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a 46.4% chance of further rate cuts next month. In early trading, copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fall 0.4% to $10,723.50 a metric ton, while aluminum is down 0.3% to $2,799.50 a ton. ([e-mail])

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London, South African Gold Stocks Slide on Weakening Rate-Cut Bets -- Market Talk

0853 GMT - Gold equities have been hit by a broad market selloff in opening trade as gold futures slide. Weakening expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates leave futures in New York down 1.3% at $4,021.30 a troy ounce. Higher interest rates weigh on nonyielding assets like gold. In London, gold and silver miner Fresnillo is down 5.3%, Hochschild Mining slides 3.7% and Endeavour Mining falls 2.5%. In Johannesburg, both Gold Fields and Sibanye-Stillwater drop nearly 6%, while Harmony Gold is down 4%. ([e-mail])

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Oil Slips as Traders Weigh Oversupply Prospects, Risks to Russian Flows

0851 GMT - Oil prices slip in early European trading, pressured by prospects of a growing supply surplus and as traders continue to closely monitor Russian flows. Brent crude is down 0.4% to $63.91 a barrel, while WTI falls 0.5% to $59.57 a barrel. "Prices remain tethered between geopolitical instability and structural supply expansion," Nadir Belbarka, analyst at XMArabia, says. Global crude benchmarks are expected to fall further in coming months as expectations of an impending glut continue to weigh on their outlook. Meanwhile, damage to Russia's Novorossiysk facility wasn't as significant as originally expected. However, the latest U.S. sanctions are starting to affect prices, with market watchers saying Moscow's crude has begun trading at a significant discount to global benchmarks. ([e-mail])

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Gold Falls on Lower U.S. Rate-Cut Bets -- Market Talk

0841 GMT - Gold prices fall for a fourth consecutive trading session, weighed down by reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this year and as investors await delayed U.S. economic data. Futures in New York are down 1.3% to $4,021.90 a troy ounce, while spot gold falls 1% to $4,045.86 an ounce. "Markets scaled back bets to below a 50% chance of a reduction after several Fed officials signaled caution, even as Gov. Christopher Waller voiced support," Soojin Kim from MUFG says. Nonyielding gold tends to benefit in a low-interest environment. Market watchers are now waiting for the release of a September jobs report on Thursday for more clues on the Fed's policy path. ([e-mail])

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London's Miners Slide as Riskoff Sentiment Triggers Selloff -- Market Talk

0821 GMT - London's miners are the FTSE 100's largest decliners in opening trade as a broad selloff spreads from the U.S. A risk-off approach weighs on sentiment across commodities, ANZ analysts write. In the U.S. on Monday, investors dumped a spread of asset classes ahead of Nvidia's earnings and the U.S September jobs data. Among the diversified miners, Anglo American and BHP are the largest decliners, trading down 4%. Glencore falls 2.9% while Rio Tinto drops 2%. Copper miner Antofagasta slides 3.5%. Gold and silver miner Fresnillo is down 6.3%, Hochschild Mining tumbles 5.5% and Endeavour Mining falls 4%. ([e-mail])

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Oil Declines After Tanker Activity Resumes at Russia's Novorossiysk Port

0113 GMT - Oil declines in the early Asian session after oil tanker activity resumed at Russia's Novorossiysk port. "The port had to suspend operations last week following a Ukrainian drone strike," CBA's Vivek Dhar says in a research report. "The resumption of Novorossiysk port countered price gains tied to rising U.S.-Venezuela tensions and attacks on Sudan's oil infrastructure," the analyst adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.4% lower at $59.69/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.4% lower at $63.97/bbl. ([e-mail])

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Rio Tinto Alumina Refinery Cut Significant for Ex-China Market -- Market Talk

0532 GMT - Rio Tinto's plan to reduce its annual alumina output at its Yarwun refinery by 1.2 million metric tons from October is a material shift for the seaborne, smelter-grade alumina market outside of China, tightening it by roughly 3%, RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker says. "More importantly for regional balances, Australia will have removed 3.4 [million tons a year] of alumina refining capacity between 2023 and 2026," Peker says, noting that this is equal to roughly 20% of Australia's total capacity. Peker notes tailings storage has emerged "as the critical constraint in Western alumina," with the investment needed to expand storage unlikely to provide a sufficient return at spot alumina prices. ([e-mail]; @RhiannonHoyle)

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BHP Dam Disaster Ruling Seen to Impact Provision, While Outlook Unchanged -- Market Talk

0501 GMT - The Samarco dam failure could cost BHP roughly US$1.3 billion more than previously expected, Macquarie says, as it "conservatively" raises its provision assumption related to the 2015 disaster. That follows an English High Court ruling that the miner is liable for damages. Still, Macquarie makes no changes to its EPS estimates or target prices for the miner's stock. It keeps a neutral rating and targets of A$44.00 and 21.50 pounds on the ASX and LSE, respectively. "Whilst press reporting will be adverse, BHP impact quantification and our assessment only reduce NAVs by 1%," Macquarie analysts say in a note. That said, Macquarie recently switched its preference to Rio Tinto from BHP, saying the former has more potential tailwinds from a coming capital markets day and into 2026. BHP is down 3.6% in Sydney at A$40.94. ([e-mail]; @RhiannonHoyle)

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Palm Oil Rises on Stronger Soybean Oil -- Market Talk

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11-18-25 0840ET