According to futures contracts, the Paris CAC 40 is expected to drop by more than 2.5% at the start of the session. Futures also signal a 2.1% decline for the DAX in Frankfurt, as well as for the Euro STOXX 50.

The Paris market lost more than 6.8% last week, its worst weekly performance since the beginning of April 2025 and Donald Trump's "Liberation Day," following a widespread sell-off triggered by the joint military intervention led by the United States and Israel against Iran.

Since its all-time high on February 26, reached above 8,642.2 points, the CAC has lost 7.5%, a score that brings it closer to the 10% loss technically considered a correction.

A wave of panic has also swept through European financial centers. The broad European STOXX 600 index has now fallen nearly 6% from its recent highs, specifically its record set on February 27.

The coming week may finally reveal whether the Old Continent's stock exchanges are heading toward a full-blown correction or if, conversely, their recent losses were merely temporary.

No signs of de-escalation in the Middle East

Given the developments over the weekend, the probability of the US-Iran conflict reaching an amicable conclusion has significantly decreased in recent days.

Following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, Tehran continued its attacks on Israel while also launching new strikes against Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.

Israeli Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir stated on Sunday that the war would last for "a long time" to come.

The oil market on a tightrope

With the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz exacerbating fears of a global energy supply disruption, Brent crude crossed the $100 mark this morning for the first time since 2022, reaching $108.6 (+17.1%).

WTI, the American benchmark, climbed nearly 16% to $105.1, also reaching highs not seen since the aftermath of the war in Ukraine.

For several days, analysts had been warning about the inflationary pressure of $100 oil on the global economy, a scenario that was nevertheless considered inevitable.

The question all investors are now asking is whether concerns over the negative impact of the Middle East conflict on global growth via surging oil prices will be temporary, or if they are likely to cause more lasting damage to the economy.

For Goldman Sachs, the $100 threshold is not just a psychological round number: it is the tipping point between "manageable turbulence" and a "major macroeconomic shock."

At $100 per barrel, Goldman Sachs estimates that the price becomes unbearable for some consumers. We are entering a phase of demand destruction: motorists drastically reduce their travel and companies cut back on production.

According to its calculations, the impact on growth then reaches 0.4% and the impact on inflation stands at 0.7 points, constituting a direct drag on global wealth.

With oil above $100 fueling the prospect of a reflationary pattern, Goldman Sachs also warns that the monetary policy of major central banks risks becoming more restrictive ("hawkish").

In summary, the move of oil beyond the $100 mark constitutes, according to the American investment bank, the signal of a long war that could be synonymous with an economic regime change, between persistent inflation and imported recession.

According to observers, the next target to watch is $130 per barrel, which would cause a massive oil shock and almost certainly trigger a global recession.

Investor panic is global, with particularly marked declines also seen on Asian financial markets. The Tokyo Stock Exchange lost 5.2% late Monday, falling to a one-and-a-half-month low.

Wall Street, which had so far been relatively spared from the equity market sell-off—as illustrated by the limited 2% decline posted by the S&P 500 last week—is expected to fall in turn on Monday.

For some investors, the recent decline in the US market could create a buying opportunity by offering potentially attractive reset points.

Some analysts are thus recommending looking past the factors that fueled the decline in recent days to return to recently battered stocks, such as the "Magnificent Seven" in the United States or the software sector.

Oracle and PCE inflation in sight

Beyond short-term concerns, investors will closely monitor Oracle's results, expected tomorrow evening, which will measure the American software group's ability to accelerate its growth without the cloud, outside of the giant contract signed with OpenAI.

Friday's publication of the PCE price index also promises to be crucial, as it could well show that US inflation remains persistent, well above the 2% target, which could force the Fed to maintain rates despite the economic slowdown.

Analysts fear that this figure will confirm a stagflation scenario, where price increases persist at the very moment consumption stagnates.

In a sign that risk aversion currently dominates the trend, the dollar continues to fully benefit from its safe-haven status and remains on an upward trend against the euro, which is softening below 1.1545, a yearly low.

Traders are also returning to government bonds, resulting in a clear easing of the ten-year Treasury yield to around 4.13%.