As the conflict entered its 100th day on Sunday, prospects for de-escalation remain fragile. Tehran announced the end of its first wave of strikes against Israel since the April truce, while warning that it would resume attacks if the Hebrew State continued its operations in Lebanon. Israel immediately rejected this warning. Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that operations against Hezbollah would continue, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to convene his security cabinet this Monday evening.

Despite these persistent tensions, Brent crude fell back below 95 dollars per barrel.

On the macroeconomic front, German industrial orders disappointed in April, falling by 3.8%, a sharper decline than the 2.2% contraction expected. Conversely, the Sentix investor sentiment index for the eurozone improved in June to -13.4, compared to -16.4 in May.

Market participants are now focused on the ECB decision due on Thursday. 'We expect the ECB to raise its key policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%', says Nadia Gharbi, senior economist at Pictet Wealth Management. According to her, the institution's rhetoric should maintain a hawkish tone, given the still-high level of energy prices and the latest published economic data.

Stocks in motion

Monday was a busy session for corporate news. In Italy, Intesa Sanpaolo (-1.37%) launched an unsolicited 30.6 billion euro bid for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, reigniting speculation over a new phase of banking consolidation in the peninsula.

In France, Orange, Bouygues Telecom, and Iliad reached an agreement to acquire SFR from Patrick Drahi, in a deal valuing the operator at 20.4 billion euros including debt. Orange finished this first session of the week in second place on the CAC 40 leaderboard with a gain of nearly 2%.

Airbus (-1.12%) is meanwhile under scrutiny following reports from Bloomberg that the European planemaker has warned some customers of delays of several months for A320neo deliveries scheduled for 2027 and 2028. The A321neo is reportedly among the most affected aircraft.

Finally, M6 Group shone at the top of the SBF 120 index, surging 11.85% following revelations by Le Parisien of discreet discussions between executives from TF1, M6, and RTL Group. The German group, M6's main shareholder, is reportedly still seeking to divest its stake after several unsuccessful attempts. According to the daily newspaper, a price of 20 euros per share was mentioned, compared to the 11.50 euros recorded at Friday's close. Analysts at Oddo BHF nevertheless point out that any transaction would remain constrained by the regulatory calendar and could not be finalized before May 2028.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro is up 0.20% at 1.1545 dollars.