In this climate of confrontation between Washington and Tehran, Donald Trump is considering deploying naval escorts and establishing insurance guarantees to secure merchant traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Specifically, the US president stated that he has tasked the United States Development Finance Corporation with providing political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade, and mentioned a possible escort of tankers by the US Navy. The goal is to secure the transport of hydrocarbons in the face of Iranian threats.

In this conflict, the Israeli military claims to have struck an Iranian ballistic missile site in Isfahan, in central Iran.

Additionally, in this context, French Economy Minister Roland Lescure has announced the likely holding of a meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bankers at the start of next week. This move reassures markets, signaling the major powers' willingness to coordinate their monetary and fiscal policies to counter the energy crisis.

According to Allianz Trade, "American and Israeli strikes against Iran will have implications for energy markets, transport costs, inflation risks, and financial conditions, but everything will depend on the duration of the conflict."

"While a prolonged war could trigger an inflationary shock similar to that of 2022, we continue to expect a relatively brief escalation, with oil prices anticipated at 70 USD/barrel (an increase of more than 15% compared to the previous estimate; peak expected at 85 USD/barrel) and limited repercussions on global GDP and inflation. This would not alter the path of the ECB and the Fed, since in Europe and the United States, a 10% increase in oil prices leads to a rise in inflation of about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points in the short term," estimates the specialist business credit insurer.

Dassault Aviation, ASM International Soar, Adidas Falters

On the equities front, several companies have released their annual results.

In Paris, Dassault Aviation (+3.56%) advanced on the back of a strong 2025 performance. Adjusted consolidated revenue stood at €7.42 billion, up 19.1%, surpassing the consensus of €7.10 billion. The aerospace group reported a record order book at €46.6 billion for the period and anticipates higher revenue in 2026.

Scor (+5.31%) surged thanks to a dramatic jump in its 2025 net profit: €851 million, compared to €4 million the previous year. The group's solvency ratio of 215% as of December 31, 2025, is at the upper end of its optimal solvency range of 185%-220%.

In Europe, ASM International (+6.36%) led the AEX 25. This stock market performance followed the publication of robust 2025 results and, above all, a significant upward revision of its 2026 outlook. "We expect first-quarter revenue to rise to €830 million (with a margin of +/- 4%) and anticipate that second-quarter revenues will exceed those of the first."

Conversely, Adidas (-7.4%) was the Dax's worst performer after issuing annual forecasts this morning that fell short of market expectations. Its operating profit is expected to be around €2.3 billion this year, up from €2.06 billion in 2025, but well below the average analyst estimate of €2.7 billion.

On the statistics front, industrial producer prices rose by 0.7% in the eurozone and by 0.8% in the EU in January 2026 compared to December 2025, according to preliminary estimates from Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office.

In the eurozone, the services PMI rose from 51.8 to 51.9 in February. It had been expected at 51.8. The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which includes both manufacturing and services, came in at 51.9 in February, in line with expectations, according to S&P Global, after 51.9 in January.

In France, the services PMI stood at 49.6 in February, as expected, after 49.6 in January. The Composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, came in at 49.9 in February, in line with expectations, according to S&P Global, after 49.1 in January.

By midday, the euro was up 0.19% at 1.1635 dollars.