(Alliance News) - Major European stock markets are expected to open sharply lower on Monday, following heavy losses in Asia and weighed down by a surge in oil prices.
Brent and WTI crude surpassed the USD100 per barrel mark for the first time since 2022, as the confrontation between the US, Israel, and Iran intensifies. Supporting the strong rise in European pre-market trading are production cuts in Middle Eastern countries affected by Iranian counter-attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Trump sought to provide reassurance that the crude oil spike will not last long.
"Oil prices in the short term, which will drop rapidly once the destruction of the Iranian nuclear threat is complete, are a very small price to pay for the security and peace of the USA and the world," he wrote on social media Sunday evening.
Markets have revised interest rate expectations in light of inflationary pressures generated by rising energy prices, which are beginning to reflect on the economy.
According to ECB-Watch, ahead of the European Central Bank's March meeting, the market implies a 99% probability that interest rates will be confirmed, maintaining the deposit rate at 2.00%.
Fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could cause a lasting slowdown in global growth are also weighing on sentiment.
Meanwhile, EU gas inventories have fallen below the 30% threshold, while benchmark gas prices reached their highest level in over a year, further increasing pressure on the bloc's economy.
Safe-haven asset prices are down, with spot gold falling below USD5,100 per ounce and silver retracing to the USD83 area.
The FTSE Mib is tipped to open down 2.8% or 1,230.0 points after closing Friday down 1.0% at 44,152.26 points.
In Milan on Friday evening, the Mid-Cap shed 0.4% to 56,134.94, the Small-Cap finished in the red by 0.5% at 34,598.19, and Italy Growth ended just above 8,478.41 points.
In Europe, London's FTSE 100 is expected to open down 1.2% or 125.1 points, Paris's CAC 40 is indicated in the red by 2.5% or 199.6 points, and Frankfurt's DAX 40 is forecast down 2.6% or 600.5 points.
At Piazza Affari, among the clear minority of gainers, Eni closed with a bullish candle of 1.5%, following a 1.3% gain the previous day, with the price around EUR20.48 driven by the strength of crude oil.
Berenberg maintains a cautious view on the stock, confirming its 'hold' recommendation and raising the target price to EUR17.50 from EUR14.50, compared to a price of EUR20.22 at the Milan close on March 5.
Strength was also seen in Fincantieri, which gained 2.6% after a 6.1% drop in the previous session.
Analysts Henry Tarr, James Carmichael, and Richard Dawson pointed out that the group recorded a solid operating performance in 2025, but believe current market valuations are relatively high compared to industry peers.
STMicroelectronics fell 5.1% after two sessions in the green. Notably, the stock hit a new 52-week high of EUR28.68 per share during the session.
Nexi, meanwhile, shed 1.3%. The stock saw mixed movements among some global institutional investors, with conflicting signals on overall positioning. On one hand, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board reduced its short exposure to 1.34% from 1.61% previously held.
In parallel, PDT Partners increased its short on the payments group to 0.83% from 0.46%, while Two Sigma Investments raised its short exposure to 1.39% from 1.16%, signaling a strengthening negative view. BlackRock also revised its bearish position upward to 0.62% from the previous 0.51%.
Banca Mediolanum - down 1.7% - reported commercial results for February, with total volumes of EUR1.62 billion. Total net inflows stood at EUR1.29 billion for the month, bringing the year-to-date figure to EUR2.01 billion.
On the secondary segment, Avio advanced 8.0% to EUR36.50 per share. The company announced Friday that Defense Systems and Solutions selected the group for the development, qualification, and initial production of a solid propellant motor for air defense.
Reply advanced 5.2% after a 0.6% loss in the previous session, with financial results due next Thursday.
Technoprobe shed 4.5%, following a 2.6% loss on Thursday evening. Since the beginning of 2026, the stock has increased its market cap by approximately 25%.
The board of Italmobiliare - with a bearish candle of 5.3% - approved the draft financial statements as of December 31, closing the year with a net profit of EUR55.4 million compared to EUR104.8 million in 2024. However, the board proposed a dividend of EUR1.10 compared to EUR0.90 last year. The group reported aggregate revenues of EUR1.75 billion, up nearly 10%.
Marked selling also hit MARR, which fell 2.5%, closing its fifth consecutive session in negative territory.
On the Small-Cap index, Italian Sea Group closed up over 12%, bringing the price to 2.13 in its third bullish session.
Ratti advanced 4.3%, rebounding after two sessions in which it lost an aggregate of over 10%.
Tesmec - up 0.7% - announced it has strengthened its technological positioning by winning two contracts worth a total of EUR71 million with Slovenian railways for the supply of railway network maintenance vehicles.
Aeffe closed down 2.8% at EUR0.24, its third session with a bearish candle. On the MarketScreener platform - based on a single analyst's valuation - the stock is indicated with a target price of EUR0.51, implying a hypothetical growth margin of 100%.
Among SMEs, Green Oleo saw its price rise 9.1% after a 3.2% contraction the day before.
Adventure shed 1.6%, continuing its downward streak. The stock has lost nearly 15% over the last five sessions.
Maps - down 1.7% - announced it has been awarded a contract with the Puglia Region for the enhancement and expansion of technological systems supporting health prevention campaigns. The contract provides Maps with a fee of approximately EUR1.3 million over a total duration of 24 months.
Grifal left 3.3% on the floor, following a 5.0% drop the previous day, with a final price of EUR0.88.
In New York on Friday, the Dow Jones closed down 1.0%, the S&P 500 shed 1.3%, while the Nasdaq lost 1.6%.
Among Asian markets, the Nikkei closed down 5.2%, the Shanghai Composite is down 0.7%, while the Hang Seng is retreating 1.9%.
On the currency front, as mentioned at the opening, the euro is trading at USD1.1547 from USD1.1601 at Friday's European market close, while the pound is trading at USD1.3318 from USD1.3394 on Friday evening.
Among commodities, Brent is trading at USD109.39 per barrel from USD90.83 per barrel on Friday evening, while gold is worth USD5,101.36 per ounce from USD5,147.68 per ounce on Friday evening.
Monday's macroeconomic and corporate calendar includes consumer inflation expectations from the US at 1600 CET, while a three- and six-month Treasury bill auction is scheduled for 1630 CET.
On the Piazza Affari corporate calendar, results are expected from Caltagirone Editore, CIR, Digital Bros, Sanlorenzo, and Valsoia.
By Antonio Di Giorgio, Alliance News reporter
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