MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European indexes were mostly higher--though the DAX was lower--dragged by Siemens, SAP and other software and tech stocks as investors worried about rapidly expanding AI capabilities .
In London, miners rose as metal prices continued to rebound.
"After plunging from record highs amid elevated volatility, precious metals attracted renewed buying interest," ING said.
Energy stocks also rose as oil regained some of its geopolitical premium after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone that approached an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.
Meanwhile, analysts were questioning how quickly India can wean itself off imports of Russian oil.
The world's most populous nation relies on Russia for roughly a third of its oil imports, U.S. crude is much more expensive and takes longer to get to India.
India, meanwhile, has yet to confirm the oil part of the trade pact with Trump.
Market Insight
The European Central Bank is set to keep its policy rates unchanged on Thursday, but lower-than-expected inflation might lead to a cut later this year , according to Indosuez Wealth Management.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures were steady, but mixed,with futures tied to the NASDAQ and S&P lower, and the Dow rising.
The ADP private payrolls data will be released at 1315 GMT followed by the ISM services survey at 1500 GMT.
Danske Bank said the ADP data might provide markets with the first sense of what to expect for the key nonfarm payrolls report, which was delayed due to the partial government shutdown.
However, Trump on Tuesday signed a bill to end the shutdown , so the delay isn't expected to be long.
Forex:
The upcoming eurozone flash inflation estimate for January is unlikely to have a material impact on the euro, ING said, adding that upcoming U.S. economic data could have a bigger impact, with potentially strong figures dragging the euro below $1.18 in coming days.
ING's calculations showed the euro was trading around 0.8% above its short-term fair value.
The dollar fell ahead of the U.S. data.
Bonds:
Treasury yields were little changed , with investors awaiting the quarterly refunding announcement as well as the ISM services PMI data.
The ISM services PMI will get attention "not only at a headline level after a chunky beat on the ISM manufacturing metric on Monday, but also the employment sub-index given that we shan't be getting the January jobs report on Friday," Pepperstone said.
Meanwhile investors will focus on the quarterly refunding announcement Wednesday.
Barclays said it would be looking for details around whether the Treasury re-introduces forward guidance to its desired market share.
Eurozone government bond yields edged lower, signaling expectations of a decline in flash estimate eurozone inflation data for January at 1000 GMT.
Insight Investment said e agerness to price in ECB rate hikes this year was misplaced and it created opportunities in eurozone bond markets.
Strong demand for Italy's new 15-year government bond at Tuesday's syndicated issue was a good sign ahead of Belgium's launch of a 30-year bond on Wednesday, Commerzbank said.
Danske Bank said the 15- to 20-year segment was increasingly becoming the preferred maturity in the long end rather than the 30-year segment.
An absolute majority outcome at Japan's upcoming election should drive JGB yields higher and the JGB yield curve should steepen, TD Securities said.
Energy:
Oil prices steadied as traders closely monitored developments in Iran after renewed tensions in the region.
"Uncertainty about how talks will play out means the market will likely continue to price in some risk premium," ING said.
Separately, traders await weekly inventory data from the EIA to assess the impact of a massive winter storm that recently hit parts of the U.S.
UOB lifted its Brent crude-oil price projection to $75 in 1Q, $70 in 2Q and $65 in 2H.
Metals:
Gold
Gold extended gains, climbing back above $5,100 as a historical pullback from record highs offered investors a buying opportunity.
Goldman Sachs sees meaningful upside risk to its $5,400 price forecast for December, noting that additional private-sector diversification could further boost demand.
"Such private sector diversification demand may be expressed through outright physical buying or through call--option structures, which tend to produce sharper price action."
Silver
Silver prices extended their rally, with New York futures hovering near $90 a troy ounce.
Goldman Sachs cautioned that thin inventories have created squeeze-like conditions, with rallies accelerating as investor demand absorbs available metal and reversing sharply when supply pressures ease.
Uranium
Citi expects uranium prices to rise, supported by lower mine supply from Kazakhstan and Africa, and increasing utility demand, raising its price forecasts through 2027.
"Financial speculators, including Sprott Physical Uranium Trust have intensified its activity in the recent period with substantial fundraising amounts and uranium procurement on the spot market."
EMEA HEADLINES
Wegovy Maker Novo Nordisk's Shares Slump After Guidance Disappoints
Shares in Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk slid in early European trading Wednesday after guidance for the year ahead disappointed investors.
In Copenhagen, the stock tumbled 19% at the opening bell after shares closed 15% lower in New York following Tuesday's release of the company's 2026 forecast.
UBS Targets Profitability Boost, More Buybacks
UBS Group said it plans to buy back $3 billion of its own stock this year and signaled more repurchases could follow, as it set targets that call for a profitability boost after its integration of Credit Suisse.
The Swiss bank is entering the final year of its integration of Credit Suisse, a former cross-town rival that it acquired in 2023 in a rescue deal orchestrated by Swiss authorities, confronting uncertainty about the extent to which its home country will hike capital requirements.
Spain's Santander Launches Buyback Alongside Earnings Beat
Banco Santander reported fourth-quarter results that topped analyst expectations and approved a 5 billion-euro ($5.91 billion) share-buyback program.
The Spanish lender published its earnings a day early, alongside the surprise announcement of a deal to buy Webster Financial in the U.S. for $12.3 billion. Santander is currently the largest bank in continental Europe by market capitalization, though it makes a large chunk of its profits from its operations across Latin America and the U.S. In the U.S., the bank has been building out a full-scale digital lender, strengthening its investment bank and will now boost its presence through the acquisition of a regional bank in the Northeast.
Credit Agricole Profit Slides on Banco BPM Stake Consolidation
Credit Agricole S.A. posted a drop in fourth-quarter profit as an accounting charge linked to its stake in Italian peer Banco BPM overshadowed growth across its business lines.
The French lender on Wednesday reported net profit of 1.025 billion euros, equivalent to $1.21 billion, for the last quarter of the year, down 39% from the year-ago period but better than the 898.1 million euros estimated in a Visible Alpha poll.
Infineon Raises Investments to Meet Unrelenting AI Chip Demand
Infineon Technologies said it would increase investments in the fiscal year through September to boost manufacturing as semiconductor demand for artificial intelligence keeps booming.
The German chip maker said it would now aim to invest around 2.7 billion euros ($3.19 billion) in fiscal 2026, above a previous target of 2.2 billion euros. A significant portion of investments are set to go toward a facility in the German city of Dresden that is expected to open in the summer as well as other sites to expand production capacity for semiconductors powering data centers and other AI infrastructure.
Zurich Insurance Reaches $11 Billion Deal to Buy U.K. Insurer Beazley
Zurich Insurance and Beazley agreed on an improved takeover bid valuing the U.K. cyber insurer at around 8.0 billion pounds ($10.96 billion).
The Swiss insurer has been courting the London-listed group since last year and in January went public with several offers that were turned down.
GLOBAL NEWS
Stephen Miran, Temporary Fed Governor, Resigns From White House Role
Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran said he has resigned from his job as a top White House economic adviser, ending an unusual dual role he had held since he joined the central bank in September.
The move allows Miran to keep his promise to step down from the White House if his time at the Fed were to extend past Jan. 31, when his term at the central bank expired. Miran can stay in place on the Fed's board of governors until a successor is confirmed.
America's Critical-Minerals Strategy Looks Increasingly Chinese
The new U.S. strategy for rare-earth minerals looks a lot like China's old one.
A U.S. government agency is providing most of the funding for a $12 billion government-led stockpile of minerals, some of which will likely be sourced from mining companies partly owned by the government.
Trump Doubles Down on Calls for Republicans to Nationalize Elections
WASHINGTON-President Trump doubled down on his view that Republicans should "nationalize" voting in the U.S., questioning whether certain states should continue running their own elections as spelled out in the Constitution.
"I want to see elections be honest, and if a state can't run an election, I think the people behind me should do something about it," the president said Tuesday in the Oval Office, flanked by congressional Republicans during a bill signing ceremony to reopen the federal government.
Russia Resumes Strikes on Ukrainian Energy Sites
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02-04-26 0518ET
