MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European stocks were higher with semiconductor hardware companies--including ASM--gaining , though software was losing ground.
The bond market stabilized somewhat, but selloff risks remained with Commerzbank saying Thursday's macro data could serve as a reality check.
"There seems to be no place to hide with global bond markets selling off and yields reaching highs across all curve segments."
Uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace negotiations continued to plague markets with Trump threatening fresh military action in coming days if a peace deal wasn't reached.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance said this wasn't a "forever war" when asked about the conflict's length during a White House briefing.
ING said markets seemed to have raised the bar for trading on positive Middle East headlines.
Analysts at MUFG said falling U.S. crude inventories and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continued to support prices above $100 a barrel.
However, rising global bond yields and concerns about weaker economic growth are limiting further upside momentum.
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes will be released at 1800 GMT.
Investors will be waiting for forward-looking views after the last decision to keep rates steady, Danske Bank said.
Since the last meeting, investors have priced in a growing chance of at least one interest-rate hike by year's end, a significant shift from earlier this year.
Investors will watch how officials discussed the threshold for actually moving rates higher.
Market Insight
Japan presents the most consequential structural shift for global bond markets, Nuveen said.
"As the Bank of Japan gradually normalizes policy, the largest suppressor of global term premia is slowly retreating."
While domestic investors are beginning to re-engage with JGB yields at multi-decade highs, the process should remain gradual and contingent on domestic confidence, it added.
"Once the end of the hiking cycle is clearly signaled and greater clarity on the fiscal outlook emerges, locals are likely to return, and that is the catalyst we are watching for."
"Until then, the flattening trade remains more carry and roll-down than a directional bet."
U.S. Markets:
Stocks looked set to open higher as Wall Street waited for a trading day where the focus is likely to shift from the fixed-income market to Nvidia, set to report after the closing bell.
Forex:
The euro fell to a near six-week low against the dollar and faced further declines as markets seemed to have raised the bar for trading on positive Middle East headlines, ING said.
While the risk of an abrupt euro selloff was more contained due to more balanced positioning, the macro environment has clearly turned less supportive for the currency.
"The next support to watch is 1.1570," it added.
UOB said the euro's downward momentum against the dollar was building, based on charts , adding that the support level to watch was the ascending daily trendline, which was at 1.1540.
The dollar struggled for direction amid uncertainty over the Iran war and ahead of the minutes of the Fed's last meeting.
Sterling showed a muted reactio n to lower-than-expected U .K. April inflation data as the decline in price pressures was driven by favorable base effects, Convera said.
"The largely mechanical nature of April's highly anticipated decline may lead markets to discount the softness of the print."
Bonds:
Eurozone government bond yields edged lower as markets moved to a calmer trading pattern.
The risk of further selloffs remains, however, as long as there isn't any credible solution to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
"It is hard to shake off the bearish dynamic without a solution in the Middle East," ING said.
Treasury yields edged lower .
The Federal Reserve's minutes from the April meeting are due later in the day.
"We will look out for forward guidance on the balance sheet operations, which we did not receive during the meeting itself," Danske Bank said.
Nuveen affirmed its year-end forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.10%.
"Barring a prolonged geopolitical escalation, moderating services inflation and fading tariff effects should gradually pull core inflation lower by year-end."
This provides the Fed with scope for one rate reduction--though that remains a minority market view, it added.
Even if the front end of the curve reprices lower, the long end is likely to remain constrained by ballooning fiscal deficits and a structurally higher term premium environment, keeping curve steepening pressures intact.
Energy:
Oil fell 1% after Trump said the Iran war was going to end very quickly.
Trump said Tuesday that he called off a planned attack against Iran but that the U.S. might have to give Tehran "another big hit" if a deal wasn't reached.
Meanwhile, the U.S. seized an Iran-linked oil tanker in the Indian Ocean.
Metals:
Gold extended the previous session's losses on a firmer dollar as a lack of progress in U.S.-Iran talks fuels inflation fears and expectations of higher interest rates.
"Surging energy prices linked to the Iran war triggered a broad selloff in global bond markets and pushed U.S. 30-year Treasury yields to levels last seen during the 2007 financial crisis period," MUFG said.
"Gold has now fallen around 15% since the conflict began."
EMEA HEADLINES
EU Reaches Agreement to Move Forward on U.S. Trade Deal
European lawmakers on Wednesday said they reached a provisional deal to remove some import tariffs on U.S. goods, as part of the trade deal signed last summer, ahead of a deadline set by President Trump that would ramp up tariffs on cars.
Lawmakers in Brussels had paused ratifying the deal signed last year in response to Trump's imposition of a blanket new 10% global tariff in February, after the Supreme Court struck down duties implemented last year. The European Union also delayed the process when Trump threatened to raise tariffs on nations that opposed his desire to annex Greenland, part of Denmark.
Stellantis, Dongfeng Plan New JV to Sell Voyah-Branded Cars in Europe
Jeep-maker Stellantis and Chinese partner Dongfeng Group plan to establish a new joint venture that will manufacture and sell Dongfeng vehicles in selected European markets.
The plan to produce Chinese cars in Europe is the second such deal Stellantis has announced in as many weeks, following its agreement to a tie-up with Leapmotor to produce its electric vehicles in Spain.
Mediators See Little Progress in U.S.-Iran Talks
Iran's position in talks with the U.S. to end the war hasn't changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress toward a deal, regional mediators and U.S. officials familiar with the terms said, raising questions about whether an offramp to the conflict can be found.
The comments came after President Trump said he had called off military strikes planned for Tuesday in light of what he called positive developments at the negotiating table.
CSG's Earnings Rise on Strong Demand for Ammunition, Defense Equipment
Eastern European arms maker CSG posted rising revenue and earnings on continued strong demand for ammunition and defense equipment.
The Prague-based company said Wednesday that earnings before interest and tax rose 8.7% to 372 million euros ($431.8 million) in the first quarter, as revenue jumped 14% to 1.54 billion euros.
Marks & Spencer's Full Year Profit Falls Despite Second-Half Rebound
Marks & Spencer's profit fell for the fiscal year, though the U.K. retailer said its performance rebounded in the second half and that it was recouping losses from last year's cyberattack.
M&S reported 364.6 million pounds, equivalent to $488.5 million, in pretax profit for the fiscal year ending March 28, down 29% from the year prior.
GLOBAL NEWS
China, U.S. Reach Limited Trade Agreements on Boeing Jets, Beef Imports
China agreed to purchase 200 Boeing jets and resume imports of some U.S. beef products, marking one of the clearest signs yet of easing trade tensions following last week's summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
China's Commerce Ministry said trade teams from the two countries held in-depth discussions on tariffs last week and made arrangements regarding bilateral tariffs measures, according to an official statement released Wednesday.
Bank Indonesia Delivers First Rate Hike in Years as Rupiah Flounders, Risks Rise
Indonesia's central bank snapped a long-running pause as it delivered its first rate hike in over two years to guard against inflation and steady the rupiah.
Bank Indonesia on Wednesday raised its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%, coming off the sidelines after holding steady since it eased policy settings in September last year.
Japanese Stocks Are Bargains, Even After Big Gains
Japan has had more than its share of challenges lately, chief among them energy shortages, higher costs from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and questions about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ambitious fiscal spending plans.
That hasn't stopped investors from snapping up shares of Japanese stocks. The Nikkei 225 is up 18% this year-and 47% over the past five years. Working in Japan's favor are shareholder-friendly governance reforms in the private sector and increased demand for Japanese services and goods as nations race to revitalize manufacturing and reduce reliance on China.
Thomas Massie Defeated in GOP Primary After Attacks From Trump
COVINGTON, Ky.-President Trump's handpicked House candidate defeated longtime GOP antagonist Rep. Thomas Massie, underscoring the president's iron grip on the Republican Party and the dire political consequences for lawmakers who defy him headed into the midterm elections.
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05-20-26 0521ET
