As the sounds of bombs and boots echo across the Middle East, the financial world is rattled by the sharp surge in oil prices, with Brent crude nearing 84 USD per barrel (+7%). Many oil tankers are currently blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage off the coast of Iran through which nearly 20% of global hydrocarbon flows transit.

"The events that unfolded in the Middle East this weekend mark a heightened regionalization of previous conflicts, increasing the risk of a prolonged crisis that could weigh on oil prices if tensions persist in the coming weeks," noted Michaël Lok, Group CIO and Co-CEO of UBP's Asset Management division, this morning.

At J Safra Sarasin, analysts outline three possible trajectories. The central scenario, considered the most likely (50%), foresees a short and decisive campaign: oil would stabilize around 75 USD per barrel, leading to a temporary rise in inflation of about 0.5 points and a moderate impact on growth, without significantly altering market outlooks despite increased volatility.

In the adverse scenario (25%), the conflict would drag on and disrupt regional energy infrastructure, pushing oil above 100 USD for several months, fueling persistent inflation and driving gold toward 6,000 USD.

Conversely, the favorable scenario (25%) relies on a swift resolution within a few weeks, with limited global economic fallout and a rapid easing of financial markets.

In this uncertain context, markets are jittery, as evidenced by the 17% surge in the VIX (or "fear index"), reaching 25, well above the stress zone (>20).

Stocks on the Move

In Paris, 39 of the 40 CAC components are in the red, with only Capgemini managing a gain (+2.8%).
At the other end of the spectrum are Kering (-6.3%), Legrand (-6.1%), and Saint-Gobain (-5.7%).

It is also worth noting that the European automotive sector has struggled since the start of the week. The reaction is typical: during major geopolitical shocks, investors reduce their exposure to cyclical stocks, seen as most sensitive to economic slowdowns. Renault drops 3.7%, Stellantis falls 3.9%, VW declines 3.3%, Mercedes 1.3%, and BMW 2.8%.

Elsewhere in corporate news, TotalEnergies has signed an agreement with Allianz Global Investors (AllianzGI) for the sale of 50% of a portfolio of 11 battery storage projects with a total capacity of 789MW - 1,628MWh. With this deal, the partners will invest 500 million euros in critical energy infrastructure for Germany, 70% of which will be financed through debt.

Thales has posted strong 2025 annual results, despite the impact of a one-off surcharge in France. The group reported orders of 25.3 billion EUR and accelerated sales growth beyond guidance (+8.8% organic to 22.1 billion EUR).

Amazon and RWE have signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) for 110 megawatts (MW) from RWE's German offshore wind farm Nordseecluster B.

Rio Tinto has approved the Zulti South project at Richards Bay Minerals (RBM), thus lifting the suspension in place since January 2020. This 473 million USD investment aims to extend the mine's life until 2050 and ensure RBM's operational continuity for years to come.

Statistics and Figures

On the statistics front, investors were also unsettled by the eurozone inflation figure. It stands at 1.9% in February 2026, compared to 1.7% in January, according to the flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Meanwhile, core inflation rose from 2.2% to 2.4%, an unwelcome surprise for the ECB, especially as oil prices linked to the Middle East operation are already inflationary.

"Statements by the ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, indicating that the current environment argues against taking risks with inflation, show that part of the Governing Council could adopt a more hawkish stance. This explains the sharp rise in short-term European rates this morning," says Bastien Brut, analyst at CPR AM.

Finally, the euro falls 0.8% against the greenback, to 1.15 USD.